交易视角看伊朗，多资产怎么走？

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight", expecting a gain of over 10% relative to the benchmark index in the next 6 - 12 months[12] Core Viewpoints - On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel announced an attack on Iran, and the military conflict officially broke out. The market's reaction to this event is the focus of the report[5] - The geopolitical event has a pulse - like impact, benefiting gold, oil, energy - chemical, shipping, non - ferrous metals, and the bond market. The equity market's risk appetite may decline, but it's unwise to bet on war risks. In the long - term, it's too early to determine the direction, and four variables need to be monitored[3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Geopolitical Event Background - The US has been increasing troops in Iran since the beginning of the year, reaching the largest scale in nearly 23 years by the end of February. On February 27, Chinese and US embassies issued evacuation reminders, indicating a possible escalation of the conflict. The war unexpectedly broke out on February 28, right after Iran showed a willingness to compromise in the US - Iran negotiations[1][2] - The US's explicit demands are to terminate the nuclear program indefinitely, stop supporting regional agents, and halt the development of long - range ballistic missiles. Israel publicly stated its intention to "decapitate" Iran's supreme leader, possibly aiming to promote a "revolution"[2] Market Impact Short - term Impact - After the war broke out, short - term pulse - like trading of geopolitical premiums directly benefits crude oil, gold, and energy - chemical products such as methanol, LNG, fuel oil, PTA, and ethylene glycol. Shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz will also drive up container shipping on European routes. Non - ferrous metals, affected by the bull market, geopolitical premiums, and overseas supply and shipping risks, are also likely to rise, especially tin and lithium carbonate. In the bond market, the 10 - year interest rate dropped significantly on the day when only the inter - bank market was open, reversing the upward trend after the Shanghai real - estate policy adjustment[3] Equity Market - The risk appetite in the equity market may decline, but betting on war risks is unwise. A - shares have shown an independent trend since the US stock market started to fluctuate sideways in late October last year. The "Halo trading" and geopolitical targets are in the same direction, strengthening sectors such as non - ferrous metals, chemicals, and shipping. The technology sector is not the short - term trading focus, and the large - scale use of Claude by the US military has made AI applications more popular. Even if it experiences marginal adjustments due to the decline in risk appetite and the structural seesaw effect, it presents an opportunity to enter the market[4] Long - term Considerations - It's too early to determine the long - term direction. Four variables will affect the duration of the war: Trump needs to balance domestic and foreign affairs during the mid - term election year and in the face of domestic inflation; Trump's possible visit to China in March - April may determine the short - term global security environment; the US's involvement in the Iran war is not conducive to its long - term competition with China; and Iran's ability to withstand pressure and the possibility of seeking peace. In the complex geopolitical information game, domestic market participants do not have an information advantage, and price signals are more reliable than complex news[5][6][7]