美伊冲突，影响几何？

Group 1: Impact of US-Iran Conflict - The US began significant military operations in Iran on February 28, 2026, which may disrupt China's crude oil imports[6] - In 2025, China's crude oil imports were primarily sourced from the Middle East (44.3%), Russia (16.8%), ASEAN (12.8%), and Latin America (9.4%)[6] - Trade with Iran constitutes a small portion of China's overall trade, with crude oil imports at 0.12% and exports at 0.18%[6] Group 2: Belt and Road Initiative - Despite the conflict, China will continue to expand its maritime trade with Belt and Road countries, including the Middle East[6] - The growth in capital goods exports to Belt and Road regions is significant, driven by China's economic transformation[6] Group 3: Commodity Price Trends - Geopolitical factors are now a core driver of commodity prices, affecting precious metals, industrial metals, and crude oil[6] - The concentration of exporting countries for commodities has led to greater price increases, indicating a shift towards "political pricing" rather than economic factors[6] - Oil price trends will depend on the conflict's outcome, with potential for both short-term spikes and longer-term adjustments[6]