豆粕：地缘事件影响市场情绪，或稳中偏强，豆一：关注两会政策情绪，或稳中偏强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Next week (March 2 - March 6, 2026), the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures are expected to be stable with a slight upward trend. For soybean meal, the cost - side US soybean futures prices and Brazilian soybean premium quotes are stable with a slight upward trend. For soybeans, attention should be paid to market sentiment fluctuations such as policy sentiment (Two Sessions) and rumors of state reserve sales. Additionally, geopolitical events in the Middle East during the weekend may affect market sentiment [8]. 3. Summary by Related Contents US Soybean Market - Last week (February 23 - February 27, 2026), US soybean futures prices rose slightly. Bullish factors included the easing of US tariff policies and the strong performance of US soybean oil. Bearish factors were the uncertainty of US tariff policies and concerns about China's demand for US soybeans. As of February 27, the weekly increase of the main US soybean May contract was 1.41%, and that of the main US soybean meal May contract was 1.85% [2]. - In the week of February 19, 2026, the net sales of US soybeans decreased month - on - month. The export shipments of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season were about 810,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 37% and a year - on - year decrease of about 16%. The cumulative export shipments were about 25.03 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 32%. The weekly net sales in the current season (2025/26) were about 410,000 tons, and in the next season (2026/27) were 0 tons, with a total of about 410,000 tons (compared to about 866,000 tons in the previous week). The weekly net sales to China in the current crop year were about 75,000 tons, and the cumulative sales were about 10.66 million tons [3]. Brazilian Soybean Market - As of the week of February 28, 2026, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for May 2026 delivery decreased slightly week - on - week, while the average import cost increased week - on - week, and the average crushing profit on the futures market increased week - on - week [3]. - As of the week of February 19, 2026, the harvest progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 30%, compared to 39% in the same period last year, the lowest level since the 2020/21 season. Reasons included late sowing, long crop growth cycles, and rainfall during the harvest period. In Rio Grande do Sul, rainfall was uneven, and the soybean harvest still faced the risk of poor yields [3]. - According to the February 28 weather forecast, in the next two weeks (March 1 - March 15, 2026), the precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas of Brazil was uneven and the temperature was high. The precipitation in Mato Grosso was normal, while that in other main producing areas was low. In Argentina, the precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas was slightly low, and the temperature was slightly high or normal except for a low - temperature period around March 6. The current weather impact on South American production areas was slightly bullish [5]. Domestic Soybean Meal Market - Last week (February 24 - February 27, 2026), domestic soybean meal futures prices "first fell and then rose, with the center of gravity moving up". The cost - side support came from the stable and slightly upward trend of US soybeans and Brazilian premiums, while the uncertainty of Sino - US trade events caused disturbances. The weekly increase of the main soybean meal May contract was 1.18% [3]. - The domestic soybean meal spot price rose slightly, and the spot trading, crushing, etc. rebounded slightly after the Spring Festival holiday. The average daily trading volume of soybean meal of mainstream oil mills was about 44,000 tons, an increase from the pre - holiday week. The average daily pickup volume of main oil mills decreased to about 107,000 tons from the previous week. The average weekly basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) decreased to about 275 yuan/ton from the previous week. The inventory of soybean meal of mainstream oil mills increased slightly week - on - week and significantly year - on - year, reaching about 770,000 tons. The weekly soybean crushing volume of 125 oil mills increased to about 590,000 tons, and the operating rate increased to about 16%. It is expected to reach about 1.89 million tons next week, with an operating rate of 52% [6]. Domestic Soybean Market - Last week (February 24 - February 27, 2026), domestic soybean futures prices "first fell and then rose, with the center of gravity moving up". The spot price of soybeans in the Northeast increased in compensation, but the trading volume was small. The futures price remained strong due to the overall sentiment of the soybean market and the absence of bearish factors. The weekly increase of the main soybean May contract was 0.73% [3]. - The domestic soybean spot price was stable with a slight upward trend. The purchase price of clean soybeans in some Northeast regions increased by 160 yuan/ton, that in the Inner Pass remained the same as the previous week, and the selling price in the sales areas increased by 40 yuan/ton. The spot price in the Northeast increased in compensation, but the trading volume was small. Farmers were expected to sell their grain after the Lantern Festival. The sales areas adjusted prices following the production areas, but the trading volume was limited. The resumption time of soybean product factories was inconsistent, and the raw material inventory purchased before the Spring Festival had not been consumed. The centralized start of schools in March may boost the demand for soybean products [7].