碳酸锂：基本面向好，关注市场情绪

1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of lithium carbonate futures rose with increased volatility. The 2605 contract closed at 176,040 yuan/ton, up 11,480 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the 2607 contract closed at 176,600 yuan/ton, down 15,240 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spot price rose 29,500 yuan/ton to 172,000 yuan/ton [2] - The supply side is expected to contract marginally due to seasonal maintenance of domestic lithium salt plants and sudden export restrictions in Zimbabwe. The demand side shows the characteristic of "not being in the off - season", with high production schedules in March. However, global geopolitical unrest over the weekend may cause marginal disturbances to the sentiment on Monday, and potential negative feedback risks in demand need continuous tracking. Currently, the absolute level of lithium prices is relatively high, but the strong fundamentals will support the bottom of the market [5] - The price of the futures main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 150,000 - 180,000 yuan/ton. There is no cross - period trading recommendation. Due to large price fluctuations, upstream and downstream enterprises are advised to hedge with options [6][7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Basis Situation - This week, the price of lithium carbonate futures rose with increased volatility. The SMM spot - futures basis (2605 contract) strengthened to - 6,900 yuan/ton, and the Fubao trader's premium/discount quotation was - 740 yuan/ton, strengthening 315 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spread between the 2605 - 2607 contracts was - 560 yuan/ton, weakening 580 yuan/ton month - on - month [2] 3.2 Supply - side Situation - Domestic lithium salt plants are undergoing seasonal maintenance, and overseas supply is suddenly restricted. Zimbabwe has suspended the export of unprocessed minerals and lithium concentrates. In 2025, China imported 6.209 million tons of lithium concentrates, of which 1.191 million tons were from Zimbabwe, accounting for 19.1%. In 2026, Zimbabwe is expected to provide 177,000 tons of LCE, accounting for 8.1% of global resources. The domestic weekly output of lithium carbonate is 21,822 tons, an increase of 1,638 tons from last week [3] 3.3 Demand - side Situation - In the short term, demand is relatively strong, and the production schedules in March are relatively good. The actual production cut of cathode material plants is limited, and the demand for export rush continues to be released. The output is expected to remain at a high level. In the domestic energy storage market, last week, there were 2 project wins with a total winning scale of 0.175GW/0.4GWh, a 94.1% week - on - week and 92.0% year - on - year decrease. The EPC unit price of the 2 - hour energy storage system remains at 0.80 yuan/Wh [4] 3.4 Inventory Situation - This week, lithium carbonate continued to be destocked, with the industry inventory at 100,093 tons, a decrease of 2,839 tons from last week. A total of 298 futures warehouse receipts were cancelled, with a total of 38,461 lots [4] 3.5 Market Outlook - The supply - demand situation is strong. Although market sentiment may be disturbed in the short term, there is obvious bottom support. The futures main contract price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 150,000 - 180,000 yuan/ton. There is no cross - period trading recommendation, and upstream and downstream enterprises are advised to hedge with options [5][6][7]