GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2026-03-01 08:51Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the sectors of non-ferrous metals, chemicals, steel, and coal [13]. Core Insights - The report indicates that under the backdrop of stable demand and constrained supply, industries such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, steel, and coal are expected to experience price increases [12][18]. - The macroeconomic environment, geopolitical trade changes, and fundamental constraints in the industry are driving price increases in non-ferrous metals [2][12]. - The report highlights specific companies to focus on, including China Railway Group, China National Chemical Corporation, and Honglu Steel Structure, due to their potential for significant growth and valuation re-evaluation [3][4][12]. Summary by Relevant Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - The report emphasizes that the liquidity cycle, geopolitical trade changes, and fundamental constraints are driving price increases in non-ferrous metals. The expected evolution of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2026 provides a liquidity foundation for commodities [2][12]. - China Railway Group is recommended as an undervalued leader in the non-ferrous sector, with significant resource reserves and a projected net profit of 55 billion yuan from resource operations by 2026 [3][21]. Chemicals - The chemical sector is expected to see price increases due to global geopolitical conflicts, improved supply-demand dynamics, and anti-involution policies. China National Chemical Corporation is highlighted for its production capacities and potential profit increases from price rebounds in its products [4][30]. - The report notes that the price of caprolactam has rebounded significantly, indicating a positive outlook for the company's profitability [7][30]. Steel - The steel industry is in a weak balance of supply and demand, with expectations for price increases due to anti-involution policies and a clearer control on supply. Honglu Steel Structure is identified as a key beneficiary of rising steel prices, with a projected 30% increase in steel structure production by 2026 [8][35]. - The report suggests that the company's profitability will improve as steel prices rise, with a target market value of approximately 200 billion yuan by 2026 [35]. Coal - The coal sector is expected to benefit from rising prices due to supply constraints and regulatory measures. North International is highlighted for its significant earnings elasticity in response to coal price increases, with a projected PE ratio of 13x for 2026 [10][38]. - The report indicates that the company's coal trading volume is expected to recover as prices stabilize, contributing positively to overall performance [11][38].