国泰君安期货·君研海外：境外权益（港美股）周度策略报告-20260301

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the escalation of the Middle - East situation and AI panic trading dragged down the US stocks, with the three major indices falling and significant sectoral differentiation. The market has partially priced in the escalation of the Middle - East situation in advance, and defensive assets such as gold, military, energy, and utilities are better than elastic assets. The AI panic trading is hard to end, and the market is chasing "HALO" assets [7]. - The trading trend of technology contraction (upstream hardware > mid - stream cloud computing > downstream application software) has been the main trading line in the US stocks since last November. The AI panic trading has affected various industries, including traditional industries and network security stocks [11]. - After about 80% of the US stock earnings reports have been disclosed, the geopolitical situation may become the dominant factor in the short - term. The 200 - day moving average may be a short - term effective support for the Nasdaq [12]. - In the short - term, it is recommended to maintain a relatively defensive stance (military and energy) due to potential variables in the Middle - East situation and the crowded and fragile market structure of US stocks. In the long - term, US stock investment should return to fundamental endogenous factors, and hardware and "HALO" assets are favored [13]. - After the holiday, Chinese - funded stocks had a good start, with prominent sectoral differentiation. The trading line is mainly around the "escalation of the Middle - East situation" and "AI panic trading". A - shares outperformed Hong Kong stocks this week, and it is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation of defensive sectors in the short - term and keep a balanced allocation of technology and physical cycles in Chinese - funded stocks [14]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs US Stocks - Overall Market Performance: This week, the "escalation of the Middle - East situation" and "AI panic trading" dragged down the US stocks, with the three major indices falling and sectoral differentiation. Defensive assets such as utilities, materials, and energy led the gains, and the "HALO" trading became the main trading line [3][7]. - AI Panic Trading: The AI panic trading is hard to end in the short - term. It has spread from software to industries such as real - estate agencies, wealth management, and insurance agencies in the equity market. In the credit market, the high - yield spread of US technology stocks has significantly increased. Since last November, the trading trend of technology contraction has been the main line, and various AI - related events have continuously affected the market [9][11]. - Earnings Reports and Geopolitical Impact: About 80% of the US stock earnings reports have been disclosed. Referring to the experience of the past three years, the 200 - day moving average may be a short - term effective support for the Nasdaq. In the short - term, the geopolitical situation may be the dominant factor [12]. - Investment Strategy: In the short - term, maintain a relatively defensive stance (military and energy) due to potential variables in the Middle - East situation and the fragile market structure. In the long - term, US stock investment should return to fundamental endogenous factors, and hardware and "HALO" assets are favored [13]. Chinese - Funded Stocks - Market Performance: After the holiday, Chinese - funded stocks had a good start, with prominent sectoral differentiation. The trading line is mainly around the "escalation of the Middle - East situation" (leading sectors: non - ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemicals, and military) and "AI panic trading" (leading sectors: upstream hardware of AI and North American power export chain). A - shares outperformed Hong Kong stocks this week [14]. - Investment Strategy: In the short - term, maintain a balanced allocation of defensive sectors (energy, military, non - ferrous metals, etc.) due to potential geopolitical variables. Keep a balanced allocation of technology and physical cycles in Chinese - funded stocks, with the technology contraction (upstream infrastructure (domestic and foreign demand chains) > mid - stream cloud computing > downstream application software) [14].