铅产业链周度报告-20260301

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral, with a price range of 16,300 - 17,100 yuan/ton [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The lead market shows a situation of both supply and demand increasing, and the price is expected to remain volatile. The production of primary lead is increasing as some smelters gradually resume production, while the enthusiasm for the resumption of secondary lead production is poor due to continuous losses. On the consumption side, terminal consumption is gradually recovering, and battery companies are expected to increase raw material inventory at low prices. The total inventory of lead ingots in five regions has increased, and the absolute inventory is at a moderately high level compared to the same period in history. However, the spot premium is near par, indicating the willingness of downstream enterprises to buy at low prices. Geopolitical risks in Iran may drive up the prices of aluminum, copper, zinc, and potentially lead. [7] - In the unilateral trading strategy, considering the supply - demand situation and macro - geopolitical support, the lead price is expected to remain stable. Given the large losses in secondary lead, investors can focus on the opportunity to buy at low prices during the later de - stocking period. [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspects - Price and Spread: The closing price of the main SHFE lead contract last week was 16,840 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.84%, and the closing price of the night session yesterday was 1,6770 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.42%. The closing price of LmeS - Lead 3 last week was 1,984, with a weekly increase of 0.89%. The LME lead premium changed from - 47.13 to - 44.63, an increase of 2.5; the bonded area lead premium remained unchanged at 97.5; the Shanghai 1 lead spot premium remained at 0; the secondary - primary lead spread remained at - 25; the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract changed from - 65 to - 40, an increase of 25; the lead spot import loss increased from 582.13 yuan/ton to 658.93 yuan/ton, an increase of 76.80 yuan/ton; the SHFE lead 3M import loss increased from 496.54 yuan/ton to 623.95 yuan/ton, an increase of 127.41 yuan/ton [8]. - Inventory: The SHFE lead warehouse receipt inventory last week was 56,817 tons, an increase of 5,485 tons; the SHFE total lead inventory was 64,667 tons, an increase of 8,128 tons; the social inventory was 67,100 tons, an increase of 13,200 tons; the LME lead inventory was 286,100 tons, a decrease of 1,025 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 1.84%, a decrease of 0.35 percentage points [8]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the main SHFE lead contract last Friday was 49,069 lots, an increase of 2,158 lots compared to the previous week, and the open interest was 63,844 lots, a decrease of 5,663 lots compared to the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - Lead 3 last Friday was 5,511 lots, an increase of 1,221 lots compared to the previous week, and the open interest was 142,000 lots, an increase of 6,194 lots compared to the previous week [8]. 3.2 Lead Supply - Lead Concentrate: The import volume, actual consumption, and production of lead concentrate are presented in different time - series data. The import TC of lead concentrate increased from - 150 to - 145 US dollars/ton, and the import smelting profit increased from - 2,192 yuan/ton to - 2,048 yuan/ton; the domestic TC remained at 250 yuan/ton, and the domestic smelting profit remained at - 3,000 yuan/ton [8][26]. - Primary and Secondary Lead: The production of primary lead is increasing, and some smelters are gradually resuming production. Secondary lead enterprises are facing continuous losses, resulting in poor enthusiasm for resuming production. The by - product output of primary lead includes silver and sulfuric acid, and their prices in different years are shown in the report. The production and cost - profit situation of secondary lead are also presented, with the profit of secondary lead decreasing from 312 yuan/ton to 240 yuan/ton [7][32][37]. - Waste Batteries and Secondary Lead: The raw material inventory of secondary lead smelting enterprises, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries, the cost, and the profit - loss situation of secondary lead are also analyzed in the report [35][36][37]. - Imports and Exports: The net import of refined lead, the monthly import and export volume of lead ingots in China, and the import profit - loss situation are presented in the report [38]. 3.3 Lead Demand - Lead - Acid Batteries: The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises, the monthly finished - product inventory days of battery enterprises and dealers, and the export volume of batteries are analyzed in the report [42]. - Consumption and End - Users: The actual consumption of lead, the monthly output of automobiles and motorcycles are presented in the report, showing the relationship between lead consumption and end - user industries [44].