择时雷达六面图：本周各项指标分数基本无变化

• The "Timing Radar Six-Dimensional Chart" is a multi-dimensional timing framework that evaluates the equity market using 21 indicators categorized into four dimensions: "Valuation Cost-Effectiveness," "Macroeconomic Fundamentals," "Funds & Trends," and "Crowdedness & Reversal" The comprehensive timing score is normalized to a range of [-1,1] [1][6][8] - The "Liquidity" dimension includes factors such as "Monetary Direction," "Monetary Strength," "Credit Direction," and "Credit Strength" For example, the "Monetary Direction Factor" is calculated based on the average change in central bank policy rates and short-term market rates over 90 days, with a positive value indicating monetary easing This week, the factor scored 1, signaling a bullish outlook [11][12][13] - The "Economic" dimension includes factors like "Growth Direction," "Growth Strength," "Inflation Direction," and "Inflation Strength" For instance, the "Growth Direction Factor" is derived from PMI data, calculating the 12-month average and year-over-year changes A downward trend in this factor this week resulted in a score of -1, indicating a bearish signal [23][24][25] - The "Valuation" dimension includes indicators such as "Shiller ERP," "PB," and "AIAE" The "Shiller ERP" is calculated as $ Shiller \ ERP = \frac{1}{Shiller \ PE} - 10 \ year \ bond \ yield $ normalized over six years This week, the score for Shiller ERP was -0.07, reflecting a slight decline [31][32][33] - The "Funds" dimension is divided into domestic and foreign capital indicators For example, the "Margin Trading Increment Factor" measures the difference between the 120-day and 240-day moving averages of margin trading balances This week, the factor scored 1, indicating a bullish signal [40][41][42] - The "Technical" dimension includes indicators like "Price Trend" and "New Highs and Lows" The "Price Trend Factor" is calculated using the moving average distance $ ma120/ma240-1 $ This week, the factor scored 1, signaling a positive trend [52][53][57] - The "Crowdedness" dimension includes derivative-based indicators such as "Option Implied Skewness (SKEW)" and "Convertible Bond Pricing Deviation" For instance, the "SKEW Factor" reflects market sentiment based on the skewness of option prices This week, the factor scored -1, indicating a bearish signal [64][65][67] - The comprehensive timing score for this week is -0.25, reflecting a neutral market outlook [6][8][9]