锡周报-20260301

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical impact on tin is limited, and market sentiment should be focused on. The strength analysis is bullish, with a price range of 450,000 - 500,000 yuan/ton [3]. - The fundamental pattern remains unchanged, and the market sentiment is hot. Tin prices have some support above 450,000 yuan. If the Middle - East situation boosts the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector, there is still a possibility of short - term upward breakthrough of the previous high. However, the high visible inventory poses a potential negative feedback. Attention should be paid to the pressure at around 470,000 yuan and the 500,000 - yuan integer level, and continuous attention should be paid to speculative sentiment, inventory changes, and actual demand release [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, Transaction, Position) 3.1.1 Spot - This week, the LME 0 - 3 premium is 19 US dollars/ton, and the domestic spot premium is 250 yuan/ton [10]. - Recently, the premiums in the Midwest and Baltimore in the United States have decreased [15]. 3.1.2 Spread - This week, the tin inter - month structure maintains a C structure, with a slight premium for 02 - 03 [19]. 3.1.3 Inventory - This week, the domestic social inventory increased by 1,736 tons, and the futures inventory increased by 1,065 tons [26]. - This week, the LME inventory decreased slightly, and the cancelled warrant ratio rebounded to 5.63% [31]. 3.1.4 Funds - As of this Friday, the settled funds for Shanghai tin are 5,121,340,000 yuan, and the fund flow in the past 10 days is in the inflow direction [35]. 3.1.5 Transaction and Position - This week, the trading volume and open interest of Shanghai tin increased [38]. - This week, the trading volume of LME tin increased, and the open interest decreased [43]. 3.1.6 Position - to - Inventory Ratio - This week, the position - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai tin rebounded [48]. 3.2 Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) 3.2.1 Tin Ore - In December 2025, the tin concentrate output was 5,335 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.90%; the import volume was 17,637 tons, a year - on - year increase of 119.37%, and the cumulative year - on - year decrease was 14.55% [52]. - This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan remained at 14,000 yuan/ton, and the processing fee for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan remained at 10,000 yuan/ton. The import profit - and - loss level declined [54]. 3.2.2 Smelting - In January 2026, the domestic tin ingot output was 11,490 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.22% [59]. - This week, the combined operating rate of Jiangxi and Yunnan provinces was 51.38%, a slight decline from last week [61]. 3.2.3 Import - In December 2025, the domestic tin ingot imports were 1,558 tons, exports were 2,763 tons, and the net export was 1,215 tons. Among them, the tin ingots imported from Indonesia to China were 636 tons. The latest import profit - and - loss was - 13,925 yuan/ton [69]. 3.3 Tin Demand (Tin Materials, End - Users) 3.3.1 Consumption - In December 2025, the apparent consumption of tin ingots was 14,735 tons, and the actual consumption was 14,040 tons [77]. 3.3.2 Tin Materials - This week, the downstream processing fee rebounded. The operating rate of monthly solder enterprises in January declined to 69.7%. The output and sales volume of major tin - plated sheet enterprises in November declined slightly [79]. 3.3.3 End - User Consumption - In December 2025, the output of end - user products performed well. The monthly output of integrated circuits, electronics, smartphones, and household appliances such as air conditioners all increased [86]. - In December 2025, the household appliance consumption increased month - on - month, while the automobile consumption decreased month - on - month [88]. - This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index declined [94].