铸造铝合金产业链周报-20260301

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the AL price showed a fluctuating trend, with the AD price stronger than AL, and the overall performance was relatively strong. The supply of scrap aluminum remained firm, and the supply of scrap aluminum raw materials continued to be tight. With the resumption of production of secondary aluminum plants, the concentrated replenishment demand of aluminum plants was gradually released, and the price of scrap aluminum might remain at a high level. The demand recovery was relatively slow, and the orders of secondary aluminum plants had not recovered yet. Overall, the current market supply and demand were still weak, and the price might show a range - bound fluctuation [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction - end - Volume and Price - The report shows the price differences between different contracts (AD00 - 01, AD01 - 02, AD02 - 03), as well as the capital precipitation, trading volume, and open interest data of casting aluminum alloy from 2025 - 08 to 2026 - 02 [7]. 3.2 Transaction - end - Arbitrage 3.2.1 Inter - period Positive Arbitrage Cost Calculation - The inter - period spread cost of the AD contract (AD2603.shf and AD2604.shf) was calculated on February 27, 2026. The fixed cost was 9.72 yuan/ton, the floating cost was 73.59 yuan/ton, and the total cost was 83.31 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2.2 Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - Based on the reference price of Baotai Group, the spot - futures arbitrage cost was calculated. The spot price was 23,000 yuan/ton, and the total cost of the warehouse receipt was 23,149.6 yuan/ton [12]. 3.3 Supply - end - Scrap Aluminum - The output of scrap aluminum was at a high level in the same period, and the social inventory was continuously decreasing. The import of scrap aluminum was also at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate [14][16]. 3.4 Supply - end - Secondary Aluminum - The price of Baotai ADC12 was slightly raised, and the price difference between secondary and primary aluminum slightly weakened. The regional price difference of casting aluminum alloy showed certain seasonal patterns. The weekly and monthly operating rates of casting aluminum alloy increased, and the monthly output was presented. The cost of ADC12 was mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and the current estimated cost was above the break - even line. The factory inventory of casting aluminum alloy slightly increased, and the social inventory slightly decreased. The import window of casting aluminum alloy was closed [27][32][37]. 3.5 Demand - end - Terminal Consumption - The output of automobiles was flat year - on - year, and the consumption had resilience. The report presented the output data of new energy vehicles, fuel vehicles, motorcycles, and small household appliances, as well as relevant indicators such as the PPI of auto parts manufacturing and the auto inventory warning index [57][58].