铂钯周报-20260301

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Platinum is expected to be stronger than palladium, with the platinum-palladium price ratio likely to continue to widen, but chasing the high ratio is not recommended [3]. - Due to the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the safe-haven sentiment in the global market has been detonated, which is the core logic for supporting the upward movement of the precious metals sector. Platinum may perform better than palladium in the safe-haven narrative [3]. - Platinum and palladium are expected to be in a volatile market in the weekly and monthly dimensions. The unilateral strategy should closely monitor the performance of platinum in the range of $2400 - $2500 per ounce. If it stabilizes above $2400 per ounce, a small long position can be considered. At the same time, arbitrage windows for spot-futures and domestic - foreign price differences have opened, and arbitrage strategies are recommended [3]. Summary by Directory Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Funds, and Positions) - Price and Volume: By the end of this week, the total positions of Guangzhou Platinum were 28,906 lots, with a trading volume of 45,528 lots; the total positions of Guangzhou Palladium were 8,990 lots, with a trading volume of 16,441 lots. Platinum positions increased significantly, while the trading volume and positions of palladium decreased compared to last week. The trading volume and positions of the main contracts are significantly larger than those of non - main contracts [6][7]. - Platinum - Palladium Price Ratio: This week, platinum and palladium continued to diverge. The high - frequency data performance and market sentiment of platinum were better than those of palladium. It is expected that the widening trend of the platinum - palladium price ratio will continue. As of Friday's close, the foreign platinum - palladium price ratio was 1.31, and the price ratio on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 1.33. Although the price difference has not reached the inflection point, it is at a relatively high level, and the strategy is also subject to risks related to US tariff increases, so chasing long positions is not recommended [11]. - Overseas Spot - Futures Price Difference: For platinum, the spot price in London was higher than the main contract price in New York on Wednesday this week. The average weekly difference between the continuous contract and the main contract in New York was $9.6 per ounce. For palladium, the spot price in London was always dozens of dollars per ounce lower than the main contract price on NYMEX this week. The average weekly difference between the continuous contract and the main contract in New York was - $34.4 per ounce [14][17]. - Arbitrage Opportunities: - Spot - Futures Arbitrage: For platinum, the cost of buying spot and selling the 2606 contract is 6.2 yuan per gram, with a spread of 13.8 yuan per gram, leaving a profit window of 7.6 yuan per gram. For palladium, the cost of buying spot and selling the 2606 contract is 4.5 yuan per gram, with a spread of 40.9 yuan per gram, leaving a profit window of 36.4 yuan per gram [19][21]. - Inter - month Arbitrage: For platinum, the cost of buying the 2606 contract and selling the 2610 contract is 8.3 yuan per gram, with a spread of - 13.1 yuan per gram, and the arbitrage window is not open. For palladium, the cost of buying the 2606 contract and selling the 2610 contract is 6.2 yuan per gram, with a spread of - 6.9 yuan per gram, and the arbitrage window is not open [23][25]. - Domestic - Foreign Arbitrage: For platinum, the cost of buying the NYMEX main contract and selling the 2606 contract is 71.4 yuan per gram, with a spread of 100.4 yuan per gram, leaving a profit window of 29 yuan per gram. For palladium, the cost of buying the NYMEX main contract and selling the 2606 contract is 56.0 yuan per gram, with a spread of 61.7 yuan per gram, leaving a profit window of 5.7 yuan per gram [27][29]. - Import Parity Arbitrage: For platinum, the cost of buying London platinum forward and selling the 2606 contract is 69.0 yuan per gram, with a spread of 110.6 yuan per gram, leaving a profit window of 41.6 yuan per gram. For palladium, the cost of buying London palladium forward and selling the 2606 contract is 53.8 yuan per gram, with a spread of 65.1 yuan per gram, leaving a profit window of 11.3 yuan per gram [31][33]. - Recycling Spread: This week, the average recycling discount for platinum was at the level of - 95 yuan per gram, and the recycling discount for palladium widened to about - 65 yuan per gram during the week [36]. - ETF Positions: This week, the platinum ETF position increased by 0.16 tons (about 0.52 million ounces), and the palladium ETF position decreased by 0.41 tons (about 1.30 million ounces). The continuous outflow of platinum and palladium ETFs currently does not constitute a judgment of trend reversal, and the ETF flow needs to be closely monitored in the future [38]. Fundamental Aspects (Inventory and Import - Export Data) - Forward Discount Rate: In the past three months, the overseas forward markets for both platinum and palladium have been in a discount structure. The forward discount rate of platinum showed a slight upward trend this week, with the 3M and 1Y terms reaching an annualized level of over 5%. The forward structure of palladium has gradually loosened this week and has now returned to the 2% - 3% range [43]. - Inventory and Registered Warehouse Receipt Ratio: - Platinum: This week, the NYMEX platinum inventory decreased further and then slightly increased on Friday, reaching 588,100 ounces (about 18.29 tons) on Friday. The proportion of registered warehouse receipts decreased to 53.3% [44]. - Palladium: This week, the NYMEX palladium inventory continued to flow out and then increased to 202,200 ounces (about 6.29 tons). The proportion of registered warehouse receipts quickly increased to 81.2% [47]. - China's Import - Export Data: - Platinum: Since September 2025, platinum exports have increased sharply, and imports and net inflows have diverged. Since January 2020, the cumulative net inflow has been 553.88 tons. In December, both imports and exports increased, with imports of 5.57 tons, exports of 2.86 tons, and a net inflow of only 2.71 tons. The data for January 2026 has not been released [55]. - Palladium: Since 2020, palladium has had almost no exports and is in a state of pure import, with a cumulative net inflow of 170.74 tons. In December, imports further increased to 5.68 tons, with a net inflow of 5.63 tons. The data for January 2026 has not been released [55]. - London Fixing Supply - Demand Balance: - Platinum: The average supply - demand balance of the London platinum fixing was around + 150KG except on Friday this week [57]. - Palladium: The supply - demand balance of the London palladium fixing was - 200KG on February 23, and the average for the week was - 36KG [58][59].