豆粕：地缘事件影响市场情绪，或稳中偏强；豆一：关注两会政策情绪，或稳中偏强

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - Next week (03.02 - 03.06), the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybeans are expected to be stable with a slight upward trend. For soybean meal, the prices of US soybean futures and Brazilian premium quotes on the cost side are stable with a slight upward trend. For soybeans, attention should be paid to market sentiment fluctuations, such as policy sentiment and rumors about state and local reserves. In addition, the geopolitical events in the Middle East during the weekend may affect market sentiment [7]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section US Soybean Futures Prices - Last week (02.23 - 02.27), US soybean futures prices rose slightly. Bullish factors included the easing of US tariff policies and the strong performance of US soybean oil. Bearish factors included the uncertainty of US tariff policies and market concerns about China's demand for US soybeans. As of February 27, the weekly increase of the main US soybean 05 contract was 1.41%, and the weekly increase of the main US soybean meal 05 contract was 1.85% [2]. Domestic Soybean Meal and Soybean Futures Prices - Last week (02.24 - 02.27), domestic soybean meal and soybean futures prices "first fell and then rose, with the center of gravity moving up." For soybean meal, on the one hand, the prices of US soybeans and Brazilian premiums were stable with a slight upward trend, providing cost support. On the other hand, there was still uncertainty in Sino - US trade events. For soybeans, the spot prices in the Northeast production area increased, and the futures prices were still strong, affected by the overall sentiment of the soybean market and without bearish factors. From the perspective of the weekly K - line, in the week of February 27, the weekly increase of the main soybean meal m2605 contract was 1.18%, and the weekly increase of the main soybean a2605 contract was 0.73% [3]. International Soybean Market Fundamentals - US soybean net sales: In the week of February 19, 2026, the export shipments of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The weekly net sales of the current season (2025/26) and the next season (2026/27) also decreased. The weekly net sales of US soybeans to China in the current crop year (2025/26) were about 7.5 million tons (about 42 million tons in the previous week), and the cumulative sales were about 1.066 billion tons [3]. - Brazilian soybean import cost: As of the week of February 28, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans in May 2026 decreased slightly week - on - week, the average import cost increased week - on - week, and the average crushing profit on the futures market increased week - on - week [3]. - Brazilian soybean harvest progress: As of the week of February 19, the harvest progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 30%, lower than 39% in the same period last year, the lowest level since the 2020/21 season. The reasons included late sowing, long growth cycle, and rainfall during the harvest period. In Rio Grande do Sul, although the rainfall was beneficial to crop growth, the uneven distribution of rainfall still posed a risk of poor harvest [3]. - South American soybean main - producing area weather forecast: According to the February 28 weather forecast, in the next two weeks (March 1 - March 15), the precipitation in the Brazilian soybean main - producing areas was uneven and the temperature was high. The precipitation in the Argentine soybean main - producing areas was slightly less, and the temperature was slightly high or basically normal except for being low around March 6. Overall, the weather in South American production areas had a slightly positive impact, and attention should be paid to future weather changes [4]. Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market - Trading volume: The trading volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week. As of the week of February 27, the average daily trading volume of mainstream oil mills in China was about 44,000 tons, compared with about 30,000 tons in the week before the Spring Festival [5]. - Pick - up volume: The pick - up volume of soybean meal decreased week - on - week. As of the week of February 27, the average daily pick - up volume of major oil mills was about 107,000 tons, compared with about 115,000 tons in the previous week [5]. - Basis: The basis of soybean meal decreased week - on - week. As of the week of February 27, the average weekly basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) was about 275 yuan/ton, compared with about 306 yuan/ton in the previous week and about 705 yuan/ton in the same period last year [5]. - Inventory: The inventory of soybean meal increased slightly week - on - week and increased year - on - year. As of the week of February 13, the inventory of mainstream oil mills in China was about 770,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of about 2% and a year - on - year increase of about 73% [5]. - Crushing volume: The soybean crushing volume increased week - on - week and is expected to continue to increase next week. As of the week of February 27, the weekly soybean crushing volume was about 590,000 tons (40,000 tons in the previous week and 1.98 million tons in the same period last year), and the operating rate was about 16% (1% in the previous week and 56% in the same period last year). Next week (February 28 - March 6), the soybean crushing volume of oil mills is expected to be about 1.89 million tons (1.52 million tons in the same period last year), and the operating rate will be 52% (43% in the same period last year) [5]. Domestic Soybean Spot Market - Soybean prices: The soybean prices were stable with a slight upward trend. In the Northeast, the purchase price of clean soybeans increased by 160 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. In the inland areas, the purchase price remained the same as the previous week. In the sales areas, the selling price of Northeast edible soybeans increased by 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [6]. - Northeast production area: The spot prices in the Northeast production area increased, but the trading volume was small. Farmers were expected to sell their grains after the Lantern Festival. After the Spring Festival, most traders resumed business, but the market feedback was not ideal, and the new trading volume was small. Farmers were reluctant to sell and asked for higher prices [6]. - Sales areas: The sales areas adjusted prices following the production areas, but the trading volume was limited. After the Spring Festival, dealers in the market resumed business, and the selling price of Northeast soybeans was adjusted according to the origin and arrival cost. However, the downstream market was not active in purchasing, and the trading was slow. The price increase in the market was smaller than that in the production area. The resumption time of soybean product factories was inconsistent, and the raw material inventory purchased before the Spring Festival had not been consumed. The centralized opening of schools in March may boost the demand for soybean products [6].