锌产业链周度报告-20260301

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc market is currently in a state of neutral to strong. The supply and demand side of zinc is gradually changing, with the supply side expected to become looser, and the demand side slowly recovering after the holiday. In the long - term, supply - side contradictions will continue to dominate prices. The recent escalation of the Middle East situation may boost zinc prices due to market sentiment, but the actual impact on domestic supply is expected to be limited [2][3][5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Price: The closing price of Shanghai Zinc main contract last week was 24,710, with a weekly increase of 2.13%, and the closing price of the night session yesterday was 24,445, with a night - session decrease of 1.07%. The closing price of LmeS - Zinc 3 last week was 3,308, with a weekly decrease of 2.07% [6] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc main contract last Friday was 104,548, an increase of 1,614 compared to the previous week, and the open interest was 94,874, an increase of 55,085. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 9,705, an increase of 3,962 compared to the previous week, and the open interest was 229,485, a decrease of 1,863 [6] - Basis: The LME zinc premium changed from - 31.28 to - 18.34, an increase of 12.94; the bonded area zinc premium changed from - 45 to 130, an increase of 175; the Shanghai 0 zinc spot premium changed from - 35 to - 45, a decrease of 10; the Guangdong 0 zinc spot premium changed from - 65 to - 125, a decrease of 60; the Tianjin 0 zinc spot premium changed from - 85 to - 75, an increase of 10 [6] - Inventory: Shanghai Zinc warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 23,972 to 69,665; Shanghai Zinc total inventory increased by 39,027 to 126,052; social inventory increased by 59,500 to 219,900; LME zinc inventory decreased by 4,225 to 97,350, and the proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts was 7.50%, a decrease of 3.11% compared to the previous week; the bonded area inventory remained unchanged at 3,300 [6] 3.2 Industry Chain Comparison - Inventory: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories are at high levels, and zinc ingot inventory continues to increase [8] - Profit: Zinc ore profits are in the forefront of the industrial chain, while smelting profits are at historical lows. Mine enterprise profits are stable and at historical highs, smelting profits are stable and at historical lows, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits are rising but at the same - period low [10][11] - Capacity Utilization: The zinc concentrate capacity utilization rate is rising and at a high level in the same period of history; the refined zinc capacity utilization rate is rising and at a medium level in the same period of history; the downstream galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide capacity utilization rates are rising but at a medium - to - low level in history [12][13] 3.3 Trading Aspects - Spot: The spot premium has declined. Overseas premiums are differentiated this week, with the Singapore premium remaining flat, the Antwerp premium declining, and the LME CASH - 3M rising [16][18] - Spread: The C - structure of Shanghai Zinc has flattened [21] - Inventory: There was a significant inventory build - up this week, and the open - interest - to - inventory ratio has decreased. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in the Singapore area, the total LME inventory is relatively stable, the CASH - 3M is related to LME off - warrant inventory, and the proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts has dropped significantly to a historical low. The bonded area inventory remained unchanged this week, and the global visible zinc inventory has slightly increased [25][30][32] - Futures: The domestic open interest is at a medium - to - high level in the same period of history [33] 3.4 Supply - Zinc Concentrate: Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly, domestic zinc ore production is at a high level in the same period, the import ore processing fee has decreased this week, and the domestic ore processing fee has remained stable. The zinc ore arrival volume is at a medium level, and the smelter raw material inventory is at a low level in the same period [36][37] - Refined Zinc: Smelting output is rising and at a high level in the same period of history, smelter finished product inventory is rising and at a high level in the same period of history, and zinc alloy output is at a high level [38] - Imports and Exports: The refined zinc import volume and export volume data are provided, and the refined zinc import profit and loss situation is also presented [40] - Recycled Zinc Raw Materials: Data on the capacity utilization rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills, scrap steel daily consumption of steel mills, and the prices of plating pipe slag and secondary zinc oxide are provided [42][43][44][45] 3.5 Demand - Refined Zinc Consumption: The refined zinc consumption growth rate is positive [48] - Downstream: The monthly capacity utilization rate of downstream industries has increased slightly, mostly at a high level in the same period of history. The raw material and finished product inventory data of downstream industries such as galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide are also provided [52][53][56] - Terminal: The real estate market is still at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments. Data on the capacity utilization rate of domestic tires, cement出库量, rubber tire production, project fund availability rate, and real estate and infrastructure investment are provided [61][62] 3.6 Overseas Factors - Data on European natural gas futures prices, EU carbon quota prices, European electricity prices, and European zinc smelter profit and loss are provided [64][65][66][67]