资产配置周报：把握商品周期与科技赋能主线，关注油价变量-20260301

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes grasping the commodity cycle and technology empowerment, with a focus on oil price variables. Overall commodity prices have rebounded this year, particularly precious metals, while Brent crude oil has risen above $72 per barrel due to geopolitical influences, nearing the highest level since July of the previous year. The demand shift is moving from traditional infrastructure to computing power and new energy sectors, indicating a recovery phase. Energy prices are closely linked to U.S. inflation, impacting interest rate policies, bonds, and technology sectors. Major institutions like IEA and EIA predict that oil supply growth will exceed demand growth in 2026, but current oil inventories have not surged significantly, and oil-producing countries are cautious about increasing output, suggesting strong short-term support for oil prices [8][9][10]. Group 2 - In the domestic equity market, as of the week ending February 27, the style ranking is cyclical > growth > consumption > finance, with an average daily trading volume of 24,244 billion yuan, up from 20,946 billion yuan previously. Among the 31 primary industries tracked, 25 saw gains while 6 experienced declines. The top-performing sectors included steel (+12.27%), non-ferrous metals (+9.77%), and basic chemicals (+7.15%), while the sectors with the largest declines were media (-5.10%), retail (-1.64%), and food and beverage (-1.54%) [19][11]. Group 3 - The report indicates that the energy sector is experiencing upward pressure, with WTI crude oil rising to $67.02 per barrel, a 0.8% increase from the previous week. As of February 20, U.S. crude oil production was 13.702 million barrels per day, a year-on-year increase of 200,000 barrels per day. The U.S. refinery throughput was 15.661 million barrels per day, with an operating rate of 88.6%. Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran, have raised concerns about oil supply security in the Strait of Hormuz, contributing to price increases [30][31][32].