A股2026年3月观点及配置建议：地缘加剧，资源科技-20260301

Core Views - The market is expected to experience limited index space and focus on structural trends in March, influenced by geopolitical factors and policy expectations surrounding the upcoming Two Sessions and the 14th Five-Year Plan [2][12][23] - The geopolitical situation, particularly the US-Iran conflict, is identified as a significant variable affecting A-shares, with potential implications for commodity prices and global macroeconomic logic [4][12][14] - The market style is anticipated to become more balanced, with small and mid-cap stocks likely to continue outperforming, driven by liquidity from financing and quantitative private equity [4][12][15] Industry and Sector Recommendations - Key sectors to focus on include non-ferrous metals (industrial metals, energy metals, and minor metals), basic chemicals, machinery (automation and engineering), power equipment (batteries, grid equipment, wind power), electronics (semiconductors), and public utilities (electricity) [4][5][18] - The report emphasizes the importance of cyclical price increases and the expansion of AI hardware as core investment themes for March [4][12][18] - The anticipated policy support for traditional infrastructure and consumer services is expected to catalyze investment opportunities in these sectors [4][12][18] Market Liquidity and Capital Supply - March is projected to see continued net inflows of incremental capital, with a focus on the dynamics between financing funds and ETF redemptions [4][12][15] - The macro liquidity environment is expected to remain stable and abundant, supported by the central bank's monetary policy stance and the upcoming Two Sessions [4][12][15] Economic and Profitability Outlook - Profit expectations have been adjusted upward, particularly in resource products, information technology, and midstream manufacturing sectors [5][12] - The report notes that the profitability growth rate for the entire A-share market and non-financial sectors for 2026 has been slightly revised upward, indicating a positive outlook for these industries [5][12]