工业硅：上游复产，关注市场情绪扰动，多晶硅：关注市场反内卷情绪

Report Title - The report is titled "Industrial Silicon: Upstream Resumption, Pay Attention to Market Sentiment Disturbance" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Report Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon: Pay attention to the upstream resumption rhythm. Although the supply is expected to increase in mid - early March, the downward space of the disk may be limited by funds. It is recommended to look for buying points at low positions, with the expected disk range next week being 8200 - 8800 yuan/ton [6][7] - Polysilicon: Pay attention to the change of spot prices. It is in a state of high - inventory destocking, and the price center of gravity may decline in the early stage of destocking. However, the disk bottom has support, and it is not recommended to participate in futures, but options can be considered if participating. The expected disk range next week is 45000 - 51000 yuan/ton [7] Summary of Each Section 1. Market Data - It provides the reference prices of industrial silicon in mainstream consumption areas and the transaction prices in three major ports/warehouses from January 30, 2026, to February 27, 2026 [10] 2. Industrial Silicon Supply Side - Smelting and Raw Material Ends - Inventory: This week, the social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.3 million tons, and the factory inventory decreased by 0.18 million tons, with the overall industry inventory increasing by 0.48 million tons. The subsequent registration of futures warehouse receipts needs attention [3][12] - Production: The market focuses on the resumption rhythm of upstream silicon plants in mid - early March. This week, the monthly opening rate and monthly output of industrial silicon are shown in the charts, and the production in Xinjiang is expected to increase with the resumption of 15 furnaces in mid - early March [3][14] - Cost: The cost of industrial silicon in the southwest region during the dry season is calculated to be 10000 - 10500 yuan/ton (converted to the disk). The prices of raw materials such as silica, petroleum coke, washed coking coal, charcoal, and electrodes, as well as the electricity prices in main production areas, are presented in the charts [3][15][19] 3. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Polysilicon - Market situation: This week, the polysilicon disk showed a weak shock, and the upstream quotation may gradually loosen under high - inventory pressure. The market focuses on whether large polysilicon manufacturers will resume production in March [2][4] - Supply: The weekly output decreased, and the inventory of silicon material manufacturers decreased. The overall industry inventory is about 500,000 tons, close to 5 months of consumption, and is at a high level. The average full - cost is about 45,000 - 46,000 yuan/ton [4] - Demand: The silicon wafer production schedule increased week - on - week. However, the continuous decline in silicon wafer prices affects the psychological purchase price of silicon materials. After mid - early March, the demand is expected to gradually decline [4][5] 4. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Organic Silicon - Market situation: This week, the weekly production of organic silicon increased slightly, and some factories plan to resume normal production. The downstream purchase is light, and the inventory is increasing [3] - Relevant data: The average price, monthly opening rate, monthly output, factory inventory, export volume, and profit of DMC are presented in the charts [25][27] 5. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Aluminum Alloy - Market situation: After the Spring Festival, the resumption of work of aluminum alloy ingot manufacturers is limited, with few inquiries and purchases. It is expected that rigid - demand orders will be released after the Lantern Festival [3] - Relevant data: The price, monthly opening rate, average profit of recycled aluminum, and the monthly sales volume of domestic automobiles are presented in the charts [27][28]