国泰君安期货·能源化工天然橡胶周度报告-20260301

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The natural rubber market is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend next week. Although downstream demand has limited acceptance of high prices and there is high inventory pressure, the supply of raw materials in Southeast Asian production areas is shrinking, leading to rising prices and high processing costs. Additionally, the military conflict in the Middle East may boost market sentiment [104]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - In January 2026, Vietnam's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber increased by 35% year - on - year, and exports to China increased by 33% year - on - year [5]. - In January 2026, the EU's passenger car sales decreased by 3.9% year - on - year, but the market share of pure electric vehicles increased [6]. - In 2025, the US tire imports increased by 4.8% year - on - year, but imports from China decreased by 15% [7]. 3.2 Price - After the Spring Festival, both domestic and foreign markets rose significantly, with JPX RSS3 leading the increase. On February 27, 2026, compared with February 13, the closing prices of RU2605, NR2604, Singapore TSR20:2605, and Tokyo RSS3:2605 increased by 5.15%, 4.44%, 4.42%, and 7.14% respectively [10][12]. - The basis and spreads such as RU - NR, RU - BR, NR - SGX TSR20, and RU - JPX RSS3 increased. The spreads between whole - milk rubber and RU05, and 05 - 09 month spread also changed [16][18][20]. - The prices of substitute products such as butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber showed different trends. The quotation of butadiene rubber was initially raised but then showed an inverted situation [28][30]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply - The main producing areas in Southeast Asia are in the dry season with less rainfall, and the temperature is generally normal, with slightly higher temperatures in Hainan [37][41]. - The global main producing areas are in the low - production season, and raw material prices continue to strengthen. The processing profits of Thai standard rubber and smoked sheet increased, while the production profit of concentrated latex decreased [43][49]. - In January 2026, Thailand's rubber exports decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, but smoked sheet exports were still high compared with the same period in previous years. Indonesia's total natural rubber exports decreased month - on - month, and exports to China continued to decline. Vietnam's natural rubber exports decreased month - on - month but reached a high level in the same period in history, with a significant decline in latex exports. Cote d'Ivoire's total rubber exports decreased month - on - month, and exports to China decreased more [60][66][69][73]. - In December 2025, China's natural rubber imports (including mixed and composite rubber) increased by 24.84% month - on - month and 25.40% year - on - year [77]. 3.3.2 Demand - The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises increased significantly compared with the previous cycle. All - steel tires showed inventory reduction, while semi - steel tires started to accumulate inventory [80]. - In December 2025, the exports of all - steel tires decreased slightly month - on - month, while the exports of semi - steel tires continued to recover. In January 2026, the sales of heavy - duty trucks increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, while the sales of passenger cars decreased [83]. - In December 2025, both the freight turnover and passenger turnover of road transportation decreased month - on - month [87]. 3.3.3 Inventory - China's natural rubber inventory continued the pre - holiday inventory accumulation trend. The inventory of dark - colored rubber and light - colored rubber increased, with a relatively large increase in Qingdao's inventory. The futures inventory also showed different changes [94][98]. 3.4 This Week's View Summary - Supply: As of February 23, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory increased by 5.4%. The price of raw materials in Thailand continued to rise [104]. - Demand: Most tire enterprises' production and supply basically recovered, and the overall shipment was good, which was beneficial for inventory reduction [104]. - View: The market is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend next week [104]. - Valuation: The spread between RU and NR and the spread between mixed standard rubber and RU widened [104]. - Strategy: Short - term long for single - side trading, be cautious when chasing high; positive spread arbitrage for inter - period trading (long 05 and short 09); short - term long BR and short NR for cross - variety trading [104].