国泰君安期货·能源化工尿素周度报告-20260301

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market is expected to run strongly in the short - term, but the upside space is narrowing. The support comes from the strong expectation of agricultural spring plowing demand after the Spring Festival and the gradual realization of this expectation. However, the policy pressure is increasing as the spot guidance price of urea policy has not been raised from April to June, which restricts the upside space of the unilateral price [2]. - The 05 contract has a fundamental pressure level at around 1,930 yuan/ton, mainly due to spot policy pressure and warehouse receipt registration costs. The fundamental support level is expected to be around 1,770 - 1,780 yuan/ton, supported by the strong expectation of agricultural demand in the peak season of 2026 [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Supply - Production: In the week from February 19 - February 25, 2026, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.5355 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 19,500 tons or 1.29%. There were no enterprise device shutdowns or restarts during the period. Next week, the weekly output of Chinese urea is expected to be around 1.52 - 1.53 million tons, with little change from this period. In the next cycle, there are no planned device shutdowns, and 1 - 2 shutdown enterprises' devices may resume production. Considering short - term enterprise failures, the output is expected to fluctuate slightly [2]. - Capacity: The expansion pattern of urea capacity continued in 2025. The total new capacity in 2024 was 3.92 million tons, and in 2025 it was 6.64 million tons. The expected new capacity in 2026 is 6.51 million tons [22]. - Production Profit and Output: The production profit is around the break - even point, but the daily output of urea remains high [25]. - Cost: The raw material prices are stabilizing, and the factory's cash - flow cost line is rising. For example, in the Shanxi region, the cash - flow cost and full cost of fixed - bed plants have been relatively stable in recent days [28]. - Profit: The profit corresponding to the urea cash - flow cost is currently in a profitable state [33]. - Net Import (Export): During the reserve period, the export policy has tightened [41]. Demand - Agricultural Demand: Seasonally, the agricultural demand is strengthening. High - standard farmland construction has led to an increase in the demand for urea from corn. Different regions have different fertilizer - using seasons based on their main crops [47][50]. - Industrial Demand: - Compound Fertilizer: The capacity utilization rate, production cost, production profit, and inventory of compound fertilizer in China show certain trends. The capacity utilization rate is presented in a weekly chart, and the cost, profit, and inventory also have corresponding data trends [54]. - Melamine: The production profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate of melamine in China are provided. The production profit and market price have their own trends, and the output and capacity utilization rate are also shown in relevant charts [59]. - Real Estate and Panels: The demand support from the real estate market for panels is relatively limited, but panel exports are resilient. Data on the export volume of plywood and similar multi - layer boards, wood - oriented particleboard, and real estate construction and completion areas are presented [62]. Inventory - Factory Inventory: On February 25, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.176 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 341,300 tons or 40.89%. The main reason was the reduction of logistics and transportation during the Spring Festival. Next week, the inventory of domestic urea sample enterprises is expected to be around 1.08 million tons, a slight decrease [69]. - Port Inventory: As of February 26, 2026, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 174,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8,000 tons or 4.82%. During the holiday, logistics transportation was restricted, and with the recovery of transportation, some ports had a slight increase in inventory [69]. Valuation - The report provides multiple charts and data on urea basis (including Zhengyuan, Boda, Jinkai, Dongping), monthly spreads (5 - 9, 1 - 5, 9 - 1), warehouse receipts, domestic and international spot prices to show the price and spread trends of urea [5][9][14][18].