国泰君安期货·能源化工聚烯烃周报-20260301

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints Plastic - The market is characterized by weak reality and strong cost, with limited maintenance in February and March, and downstream demand yet to fully recover. The price may experience a strong - side oscillation, supported by cost but with the actual situation yet to be verified [6][8]. - Suggest to wait and see for single - side trading, conduct inter - month reverse hedging at high levels, and short the L - PP spread at high levels [8]. Polypropylene - The cost of C3 provides strong support due to concentrated maintenance of PDH in the first quarter. The price may be supported in the first quarter as the cost rises and the supply decreases [103][104]. - Suggest single - side trading to be in an oscillatory state, inter - month trading to be oscillatory, and short the L - PP spread at high levels [105]. Summary by Directory Plastic Price & Spread - The basis is weakly stable, and the 5 - 9 month spread has weakened to - 75. The import window has compressed, and the LD import profit is at a relatively high level within the year [17][27]. - The upstream prices such as crude oil, naphtha, and ethylene have strengthened, while the overall production profit has declined [32][38]. Supply - The total effective capacity growth rate in 2025 was 16%, with production starting low and then high. The supply remains at a high level, and the supply pressure may increase marginally in the future [6]. - The planned maintenance in March is at a relatively low level, and the standard product production has increased [6][49]. Demand & Inventory - The overall downstream start - up is yet to recover. The demand may improve after the Lantern Festival, but the terminal demand level needs to be verified. The upstream inventory has accumulated due to the Spring Festival, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction [7][66]. Polypropylene Price & Spread - The basis is weakly oscillating, the month spread has strengthened, and the production profit is generally compressed [113][137]. - The Chinese arrival price has rebounded, and the import window has compressed [119]. Supply - The total effective capacity growth rate in 2025 was 12.7%, and the annual production growth rate was 16.7%. The supply center has declined, and the import volume is limited in the short term [103]. - The maintenance scale in the first quarter is high, and the supply may decrease [103][153]. Demand & Inventory - The downstream demand is slowly recovering. The BOPP and modified PP industries are expected to recover quickly, and the cost increase may accelerate the Spring Festival restocking demand [104]. - The upstream inventory has passively accumulated during the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction slope after delivery [170].