津巴布韦扰动供给，3月需求排产符合预期

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "volatility" rating to lithium carbonate [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zimbabwe's export policy change will impact lithium supply, with an expected monthly supply reduction of 12,000 tons of LCE. The actual supply impact may appear around late April. In the short - term, the impact on domestic smelters is relatively controllable, but in the long - term, it will influence the annual inventory accumulation/de - stocking trend of lithium carbonate [1][13] - In March, the demand scheduling met expectations, with significant growth in the production scheduling of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and various types of cells. However, if the subsequent power demand fails to recover as expected, power cells may face pressure and decline [2][15] - It is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate will have a de - stocking of about 2,000 tons in March. There may still be a slight de - stocking in Q2, and inventory accumulation may occur after the supply increases in Q3. If the lithium carbonate price rises to 200,000 yuan, it may lead to negative feedback on the demand side. In the short - term, a bullish view is maintained, and in the medium - term, attention should be paid to price corrections after the supply increases, but the price center of lithium carbonate may be significantly higher than before [3][16] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Zimbabwe Disturbs Supply, March Demand Scheduling Meets Expectations - This week (2/24 - 2/27), lithium salt prices continued to rise. The closing price of LC2605 increased by 15.3% to 176,040 yuan/ton. The spot average prices of SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 19.7% and 20.1% to 172,000 and 168,500 yuan/ton respectively. The price of lithium hydroxide fluctuated accordingly [12] - On February 25, Zimbabwe's Ministry of Mines announced an immediate suspension of all exports of raw ores and lithium concentrates. It is estimated that Zimbabwe's output in 2026 will be about 220,000 tons of LCE (excluding smuggling), accounting for 11%. The policy is expected to affect the monthly supply by 12,000 tons of LCE. The neutral expected impact time is about 1 month, and the actual supply impact may appear around late April [13] - The Middle East situation has little direct impact on lithium ore transportation but may indirectly affect transportation costs through oil prices. Currently, lithium prices are far from cost - based pricing, and the profit at the ore end is substantial [14] - In terms of fundamentals, in February, the lithium carbonate output was 83,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15%. The expected production scheduling in March is 106,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28%. In March, the production scheduling of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and various types of cells all increased significantly. The overall demand scheduling met the previous high - growth expectations, with the lithium iron cathode slightly exceeding expectations. However, if the subsequent power demand fails to recover as expected, power cells may face pressure and decline [2][15] - After considering imports and exports, it is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate will have a de - stocking of about 2,000 tons in March. Lithium carbonate continued to be de - stocked this week. There may still be a slight de - stocking in Q2, and inventory accumulation may occur after the supply increases in Q3. If the lithium carbonate price rises to 200,000 yuan, it may lead to negative feedback on the demand side. In the short - term, a bullish view is maintained, and in the medium - term, attention should be paid to price corrections after the supply increases, but the price center of lithium carbonate may be significantly higher than before [3][16] 3.2 Weekly Industry News Review - On February 13, Finland launched the operation of Europe's first commercial lithium spodumene mine, the Kelibers project. The project has a lithium concentrate production capacity equivalent to 15,000 tons of lithium hydroxide. It is the most likely lithium mine project to achieve mass production in Europe this year [17] - Core Lithium has reached a fixed - price agreement with Glencore to sell about 5,100 dry tons of lithium spodumene concentrate inventory from the Finniss lithium project. The funds from the Glencore agreement are expected to arrive in the second quarter of 2026 [17] 3.3 Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industry Chain 3.3.1 Resource End: The Price Trends of Ore and Salt are Consistent - The report presents data on the spot average price of lithium concentrate, monthly inventory of lithium ore samples, closing price of the GFEX lithium carbonate main contract, and term structure of GFEX lithium carbonate [19][21][22] 3.3.2 Lithium Salt: Ore - End Disturbance Causes the Disk to Rise Again - The report shows data on domestic weekly lithium carbonate production, SMM weekly lithium carbonate inventory, domestic lithium carbonate spot average price and electrical - industrial price difference, lithium carbonate basis, domestic lithium hydroxide spot average price, domestic and overseas lithium hydroxide price difference, domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide - lithium carbonate price difference, and the theoretical production profit of lithium salt plants [27][28][31] 3.3.3 Downstream Intermediate Products: The Rise in Salt Prices is Transmitted Downstream - The report provides data on the monthly production of SMM ternary materials, monthly production of SMM lithium iron phosphate, price trend of lithium iron phosphate, average price of lithium iron phosphate cells (power type), price trend of ternary materials, price trend of cobalt - acid lithium, and average price of cobalt - acid lithium cells (consumer type) [46][49][52] 3.3.4 Terminal: The Power Data in January is Not Optimistic - The report shows data on China's power battery installation volume and year - on - year growth rate, monthly power battery installation proportion, new energy vehicle production and sales year - on - year growth rate, and new energy vehicle penetration rate [61][64][65]