国泰君安期货·能源化工纸浆周度报告-20260301

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the pulp market is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation pattern with limited upside and downside space. The cost support of hardwood pulp and the lower - than - expected inventory accumulation pressure at ports limit the downside space, while softwood pulp is restricted by futures market fluctuations and abundant supply, and the lack of substantial increase in downstream procurement restricts the upside. In the medium - term, the key to pulp price trends lies in the actual recovery of downstream demand after March. If the paper mill's operating rate rises steadily and terminal orders improve, restocking demand is expected to be gradually released. Considering the impact of the US - Iran conflict on the shipping market, the market is expected to oscillate slightly upwards following market sentiment [99][100]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - As of February 26, 2026, the pulp inventory at Changshu Port in China was 685,000 tons, an increase of 87,000 tons from the previous period, a 14.5% month - on - month increase; the pulp inventory at Qingdao Port was 1.52 million tons, an increase of 82,000 tons from the previous week, a 5.7% month - on - month increase; the pulp inventory at Gaolan Port was 62,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from the previous week, a 93.8% month - on - month increase. The total inventory of mainstream port samples in China was 2.401 million tons, an increase of 206,000 tons from the previous period, a 9.4% month - on - month increase [5][6]. - In January 2026, the total wood pulp inventory at European ports decreased by 14.7% month - on - month and 10.9% year - on - year, from 1.5086 million tons at the end of December to 1.2865 million tons [7]. - Yueyang City government and China Paper signed a cooperation intention for a 30.3 - billion - yuan project to build a 2 - million - ton special cellulose and 450,000 - ton household paper production base [6]. - Jindong Paper's 280,000 - ton special paper project is expected to be put into production in mid - April, which will enhance the company's competitiveness in the high - end special paper market [8]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Trends - On February 27, 2026, the basis of silver star pulp was 4 yuan/ton, a 140% month - on - month increase; the basis of Russian needle pulp was - 146 yuan/ton, a 30.48% month - on - month increase; the price difference between silver star and Russian needle pulp was 150 yuan/ton, a 25% month - on - month decrease [14]. - On February 27, 2026, the 05 - 07 month - spread was - 32 yuan/ton, a 45.45% month - on - month decrease; the 07 - 09 month - spread was - 34 yuan/ton, a 54.55% month - on - month decrease [19]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - The price difference between silver star and goldfish pulp decreased, while the price difference between Russian needle and goldfish pulp increased. On February 27, 2026, the price difference between silver star and goldfish pulp was 650 yuan/ton, a 2.99% month - on - month decrease; the price difference between Russian needle and goldfish pulp was 500 yuan/ton, a 6.38% month - on - month increase [23][25]. - The import profits of softwood and hardwood pulp slightly recovered. On February 27, 2026, the import profit of silver star softwood pulp was - 384 yuan/ton, a 3.43% month - on - month increase; the import profit of star hardwood pulp was - 173 yuan/ton, a 15.36% month - on - month increase [27][29]. - The price of the main pulp contract rose and then fell slightly. The spot price of imported softwood pulp increased slightly compared with before the Spring Festival, but the actual transaction was light. The spot price of imported hardwood pulp increased due to cost pressure and tight supply, but the downstream replenishment was not active [31][35]. 3.3.2 Supply - The wood chip purchase price of some paper enterprises in East China increased before the festival. On February 28, 2026, the purchase price of eucalyptus wood chips by Liansheng Pulp and Paper was 1,160 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change [42][44]. - The supply of domestic chemimechanical pulp recovered this period. On February 26, 2026, the daily average price of domestic chemimechanical pulp was 3,883.33 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the weekly production was 86,000 tons, a 1.18% month - on - month increase [46][48]. - In January 2026, the pulp inventory at European ports decreased year - on - year and month - on - month; in November 2025, the global pulp shipping volume continued to decline [50][52]. - In November 2025, the shipping volume of W20 softwood pulp was low and the inventory was high; the inventory of hardwood pulp was at a high level, the shipping volume decreased, and the inventory days returned to a year - on - year high [54][56]. - In December 2025, the export volume of softwood pulp from four countries (Canada, Chile, Finland, and the US) to China increased month - on - month; in January 2026, the export volume of Chilean softwood pulp to China remained flat month - on - month and decreased year - on - year [58][60]. - In December 2025, the export volume of hardwood pulp from four countries (Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, and Chile) to China increased significantly month - on - month; in January 2026, the export volume of Brazilian and Uruguayan hardwood pulp to China decreased month - on - month, while the export volume of Chilean hardwood pulp to China increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month [64][66]. - In December 2025, China's pulp imports were polarized. The import volume of softwood pulp increased by 7.27% month - on - month, the import volume of hardwood pulp decreased by 23.38% month - on - month, and the import volume of unbleached and chemimechanical pulp increased significantly [66][68]. 3.3.3 Demand - The domestic offset paper market was generally stable with minor adjustments, and the trading was gradually recovering. The supply was abundant, but the terminal consumption was weak, and the downstream replenishment was average [70][72]. - The domestic coated paper market remained stable, lacking directional breakthroughs. The supply was sufficient, but the demand was weak, and the paper mills' inventory increased [74][76]. - The white cardboard market was dull. The cost supported the market, the supply recovered quickly, but the demand was weak, and the paper mills' inventory accumulated [78][80]. - The price of household paper was stable, the market trading was average, the terminal demand was poor, but the major paper mills signaled price increases, and the industry's operating rate was expected to improve [82][84]. - In December 2025, the retail sales of books, newspapers, magazines, Chinese and Western medicines, and tobacco and alcohol products, as well as the production of dairy products, increased significantly month - on - month; the retail sales of cosmetics decreased significantly month - on - month. Year - on - year, the retail sales of cultural office supplies and cosmetics were at a high level [88][87]. 3.3.4 Inventory - On February 27, 2026, the warehouse receipt quantity of pulp in the warehouse was 138,000 tons, a 1.15% month - on - month decrease; the warehouse receipt quantity of pulp in the factory was 15,000 tons, with no month - on - month change [89]. - The port inventory was at a historical high, and the inventory of mainstream port samples in China increased this period. After the Spring Festival, the inventory at Qingdao Port and Changshu Port continued to increase [94][96].