国泰君安期货·能源化工：纸浆周度报告-20260301

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation pattern in the short term, with limited upside and downside space. In the medium term, the key to the pulp price trend lies in the actual recovery of downstream demand after March. If the paper mill's operating rate rises steadily and terminal orders improve, the restocking demand is expected to be gradually released. The market is expected to follow the market sentiment and oscillate slightly to the upside [99]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - As of February 26, 2026, the inventory of pulp in Changshu Port was 685,000 tons, an increase of 87,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 14.5%. The inventory in Qingdao Port was 1.52 million tons, an increase of 82,000 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 5.7%. The inventory in Gaolan Port was 62,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 93.8%. The total inventory of mainstream ports in China was 2.401 million tons, an increase of 206,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 9.4% [5][6]. - In January 2026, the total inventory of wood pulp in European ports decreased by 14.7% month - on - month and 10.9% year - on - year, from 1.5086 million tons at the end of December to 1.2865 million tons [7]. - Yueyang City Government and China National Paper Industry signed a cooperation intention for a 30.3 - billion - yuan project to build a 2 - million - ton special cellulose and 450,000 - ton household paper production base [6]. - Jindong Paper's 280,000 - ton special paper project is advancing as planned and is expected to be put into production in mid - April [8]. Market Data Market Trends - On February 27, 2026, the basis of Yinxing pulp was 4 yuan/ton, a 140% increase from the previous period; the basis of Russian needle pulp was - 146 yuan/ton, a 30.48% increase from the previous period; the price difference between Yinxing and Russian needle pulp was 150 yuan/ton, a 25% decrease from the previous period [14]. Month - to - Month Spread - On February 27, 2026, the 05 - 07 month - to - month spread was - 32 yuan/ton, a 45.45% decrease from the previous period; the 07 - 09 month - to - month spread was - 34 yuan/ton, a 54.55% decrease from the previous period [19]. Fundamental Data Price - The price difference between Yinxing and Jinyu decreased, while the price difference between Russian needle and Jinyu increased. The import profits of softwood and hardwood pulp were slightly repaired. The price of the main pulp contract rose and then fell slightly. The spot price of imported softwood pulp increased slightly compared with before the Spring Festival, and the spot price of imported hardwood pulp also increased. The prices of natural color pulp and chemimechanical pulp also had corresponding changes [23][27][31][35]. Supply - The wood chip purchase price of some paper enterprises in East China increased before the festival. The supply of domestic chemimechanical pulp recovered. In January 2026, the inventory of European paper pulp ports decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the global pulp shipment volume in November 2025 continued to decline. In November 2025, the shipment volume of W20 softwood pulp was at a low level, and the inventory was high; the inventory of hardwood pulp was at a high level, the shipment volume decreased, and the inventory days returned to a year - on - year high. In December 2025, the export volume of softwood pulp from four countries (Canada, Chile, Finland, and the United States) to China increased month - on - month. In January 2026, the export volume of Chilean softwood pulp to China was flat month - on - month and decreased year - on - year. In December 2025, the export volume of hardwood pulp from four countries (Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, and Chile) to China increased significantly month - on - month. In January 2026, the export volume of Brazilian and Uruguayan hardwood pulp to China decreased month - on - month, while the export volume of Chilean hardwood pulp to China increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month. In December 2025, China's pulp imports were divided, with softwood pulp increasing by 7.27% month - on - month, hardwood pulp decreasing by 23.38% month - on - month, and natural color and chemimechanical pulp increasing significantly month - on - month [42][46][50][54][58][64][66]. Demand - The domestic offset paper market was generally stable with minor adjustments, and the trading was gradually recovering. The domestic coated paper market continued to be stable, lacking directional breakthroughs. The white cardboard market was dull, with inventory accumulation in paper mills. The price of household paper tended to be stable, and the overall trading enthusiasm was average. In December 2025, the retail sales of books, newspapers, magazines, Chinese and Western medicines, and tobacco and alcohol products, as well as the output of dairy products, increased significantly month - on - month, while the retail sales of cosmetics decreased significantly month - on - month. The retail sales of cultural and office supplies and cosmetics were at a high level year - on - year [70][74][78][82][88]. Inventory - The overall port inventory was at a historical high, and the inventory of mainstream ports in China showed a trend of inventory accumulation. After the Spring Festival, the inventory in Qingdao Port continued to accumulate, and the inventory in Changshu Port also continued to accumulate at a high level [93]. This Week's View Summary - Supply: The port inventory remains at a high level, and the supply pressure continues. - Demand: The demand side is in the process of slow post - festival recovery, but the overall purchasing sentiment is still light. - View: The pulp market is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation pattern in the short term. In the medium term, the key lies in the actual recovery of downstream demand after March. - Valuation: The basis of Yinxing softwood pulp in Shandong is 4 yuan/ton, an increase of 66 yuan/ton. - Strategy: 1) Unilateral: Wait and see, and wait for opportunities to short at high prices. 2) Inter - period: Consider the 5 - 9 positive spread strategy. 3) Inter - variety: Observe [98][99].