Guolian Minsheng Securities·2026-03-01 10:35Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the sector, with specific recommendations for various companies in the precious and base metals sectors [2][4]. Core Views - The military conflict between the US and Iran has heightened geopolitical tensions, leading to increased demand for precious metals as safe-haven assets. The report anticipates a significant rise in gold prices driven by central bank purchases and a weakening dollar [2][4]. - Industrial metal prices are expected to experience short-term fluctuations due to the ongoing geopolitical situation and domestic recovery post-holiday. The report highlights a steady recovery in production and demand for aluminum and copper, while also noting potential supply constraints for lithium and cobalt [2][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry and Stock Performance - The SW Nonferrous Index increased by 9.77% during the reporting period, indicating strong performance in the nonferrous metals sector [8]. - Key companies such as Zijin Mining, China Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt are highlighted for their strong earnings forecasts and favorable valuations [2][4]. 2. Base Metals - Aluminum prices are projected to stabilize post-holiday, with expected trading ranges between 22,800 and 24,000 CNY/ton. The report notes a slight decrease in production due to the holiday but anticipates a recovery as downstream processing resumes [29][30]. - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate between 12,800 and 13,500 USD/ton, influenced by macroeconomic factors and domestic inventory levels. The report indicates a cautious market sentiment with weak demand impacting prices [49][50]. 3. Precious Metals - Gold prices are forecasted to rise significantly due to increased safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions. The report emphasizes the role of central bank purchases in supporting gold prices [2][4]. - Silver's industrial demand may face challenges due to the impact of cheaper materials in photovoltaic applications, potentially affecting its price trajectory [2][4]. 4. Energy Metals - The report highlights supply constraints for lithium and cobalt, with Zimbabwe's policy changes affecting lithium prices and ongoing delays in cobalt shipments from the Democratic Republic of Congo [2][4]. - Nickel prices are expected to rise due to tightening supply from Indonesia, with the report noting a significant reduction in export quotas [2][4]. 5. Key Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Zijin Mining, China Gold International, and Western Mining, based on their strong earnings potential and market positioning [2][4].