国泰君安期货·能源化工：合成橡胶周度报告-20260301

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The synthetic rubber market is expected to run strongly in the short - term. Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, leading to a significant valuation premium for energy - chemical commodities. Although the synthetic rubber industry chain has obvious inventory pressure, the price of butadiene rubber is expected to run strongly, with increased volatility in intraday trading [2][3][4]. - The butadiene market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and rebound, with a balanced domestic butadiene fundamentals. Asian and European butadiene prices remain resilient, and there is support in the medium - term [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Butadiene 3.1.1 Supply - In the current cycle (20260220 - 0226), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises was 121,500 tons, a 1.27% increase from the previous cycle. Next week, the estimated weekly output is about 119,800 tons, a slight decrease due to the planned maintenance of Gulei Petrochemical's device [5]. - Butadiene capacity is in a state of continuous expansion to match the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and butadiene rubber. The expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries in stages. From 2024 to 2026, many enterprises have new capacity put into production, and some enterprises also have capacity withdrawals [14][16]. 3.1.2 Demand - In the synthetic rubber sector, the medium - term operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene is expected to remain at a high level year - on - year. In the short - term, as the maintenance of butadiene rubber devices decreases, the rigid demand for butadiene in synthetic rubber is expected to remain high [5]. - In the ABS sector, due to high inventory pressure, the demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant with limited incremental demand. In the SBS sector, the operating rate has increased slightly, and the demand for butadiene remains at a rigid level with little change [5]. 3.1.3 Inventory - From 20260212 - 0225, the domestic butadiene inventory increased. The total sample inventory increased by 3.77% compared with the pre - holiday cycle. The sample enterprise inventory increased by 2.28%, and the sample port inventory increased by 4.92%. On February 25, the latest inventory at East China ports was about 38,400 tons, an increase of 1,800 tons from before the holiday [5]. 3.2 Synthetic Rubber (Butadiene Rubber) 3.2.1 Supply - Most butadiene rubber devices maintained high - load operation this week, with only the load of a few devices in Shandong slightly decreasing. Haopu New Materials and Zhejiang Chuanhua's butadiene rubber devices are expected to undergo maintenance in March. The mainstream butadiene rubber devices are expected to have no major changes next week, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to only slightly decline [4]. 3.2.2 Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises increased significantly compared with the previous cycle. After the Spring Festival, many tire enterprises resumed work one after another, and the production scheduling is in a stage of gradual increase, boosting the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises [4]. - In terms of substitution demand, the price difference between NR - BR main contracts has expanded rapidly, and the substitution demand for synthetic rubber is expected to gradually increase [4]. 3.2.3 Inventory - As of February 25, 2026, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 53,500 tons, a significant increase of 19,600 tons compared with before the Spring Festival, a month - on - month increase of 57.68%. Due to the inventory accumulation before the Spring Festival, the extended Spring Festival holiday, and the increase in production volume compared with 2025, the inventory of sample production enterprises increased significantly, and the inventory level continued to rise [4]. 3.2.4 Valuation - The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 12,300 - 14,000 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors have increased speculation, and the upward valuation pressure has significantly decreased. The price difference between NR - BR provides support for the valuation. The effective support level is the cost line of butadiene rubber, and butadiene is expected to support the butadiene rubber price from the cost side [4]. 3.2.5 Strategy - Unilateral: It is expected to be strong in the short - term, but be cautious when chasing high prices. The upper pressure is 14,000 - 14,100 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 12,300 - 12,500 yuan/ton (supported by the NR - BR price difference and butadiene cost) [4]. - Cross - variety: The NR - BR spread may shrink in the short - term [4].