烧碱：宽幅震荡，PVC：短期偏强，关注成本变化

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided in this regard. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market for caustic soda is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations. The near - month delivery pressure of caustic soda suppresses the upside space, but it may be affected by the overall sentiment of the energy - chemical sector due to geopolitical disturbances next week [5]. - The PVC market is expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to cost changes. Cost increases support the short - term PVC market, but if manufacturers do not cut production, the market will lack continuous upward momentum [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Caustic Soda Core Contradictions and Exports - Core Contradictions: The supply - side has a weak willingness to cut production, while demand is expanding but affected by low profits. There are also disputes between short - sellers and long - sellers, with short - sellers focusing on high supply, high inventory, alumina production cut expectations, etc., and long - sellers emphasizing policy drive, cost support, and export market expansion [9]. - Exports: In 2025, the cumulative export volume of caustic soda was 4108700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 44%. The export price has risen, but spot signing is still in a stalemate. Northeast Asian FOB prices have risen to around $340 per dry ton. The US caustic soda supply is disrupted and inventory is low, leading European traders to purchase caustic soda from Asia [10][17][20]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Supply - Capacity Utilization: The average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 100,000 tons or more is 84.9%, a week - on - week increase of 0.5% [5][34]. - Inventory: The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more nationwide is 540,900 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 22.13% and a year - on - year increase of 15.28% [36][38]. - Maintenance: There are fewer caustic soda maintenance plans in March. Some enterprises have planned maintenance in the future, such as Shandong Jinling (Dongying plant) planning to shut down for 15 days around March 20 [39][40]. - New Capacity: In 2026, caustic soda production will continue, with a capacity growth rate of over 3%. The total planned new capacity is 2.94 million tons [41]. - Cost: The marginal device cost in Shandong is calculated to be 2096 yuan/ton. Liquid chlorine prices are expected to be weak in March, and the compressed space of liquid chlorine and chlorine - consuming downstream industries can support caustic soda [45][48]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Demand - Alumina: In the first half of 2026, alumina production is concentrated, with an expected new capacity of 13.9 million tons for the whole year. Currently, alumina production has declined, inventory accumulation has slowed down, and profits are in a loss state. There is an expectation of production cuts [64][65]. - Non - aluminum Demand: The pulp industry is in a off - season, with terminal profits being continuously compressed. The paper pulp industry has new capacity coming on stream. The finished paper industry has stable production. The viscose staple fiber industry has stable production, and the printing and dyeing industry has rising production. The water treatment industry has rising production, and the ternary precursor industry has rising production [73][78][83][85][87]. 3.4 PVC Core Contradictions and Spreads - Core Contradictions: There are disputes between short - sellers and long - sellers. Short - sellers focus on high supply, high inventory, weak domestic demand, and slow export growth. Long - sellers emphasize policy drive, cost support, and no new capacity in 2026 [92][93]. - Spreads: The PVC basis and monthly spread are weakening [95]. 3.5 PVC Supply and Demand - Supply: This week, the capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises is 82.08%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01% and a year - on - year increase of 3.43%. There are fewer PVC maintenance plans in March 2026. In 2026, there is no new PVC capacity except for the release of Jiahua's capacity [101][106][107]. - Demand: The real - estate terminal demand has not significantly recovered. After the Spring Festival, the downstream PVC industry's production has recovered. Since April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate for PVC and other products has been cancelled, and India has launched an anti - subsidy investigation on Chinese PVC resin, leading to an expected weakening of PVC exports [114][123][124].