钢铁周报：预期先行，钢铁继续-20260301

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the steel industry is expected to continue its positive trend, with a focus on price performance and inventory levels [1][4][6] Price Performance - The SW Steel Index has shown a year-to-date increase of 17.8%, while the SW General Steel Index and SW Special Steel Index have increased by 15.9% and 17.2% respectively [4] - The price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) is at 3,200 CNY/ton, reflecting a 3% increase week-on-week and a 3.6% increase year-to-date [4] - Hot-rolled coil prices are at 3,260 CNY/ton, with a 0% change week-on-week and a 0% change year-to-date [4] Inventory Levels - The total social inventory of the five major steel products is 1,294 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 9.6% and a year-to-date increase of 48.4% [6] - The total inventory at steel mills is 550 million tons, showing a week-on-week increase of 3% and a year-to-date increase of 42.8% [6] - Port inventory of iron ore stands at 17,096 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 0.9% and a year-to-date increase of 7.8% [6] Supply and Demand - The weekly output of the five major steel products is projected to continue increasing, with daily molten iron production expected to rise as well [10] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the operating rates of blast furnaces and electric furnaces across the country to gauge supply dynamics [12][15]