南华期货LPG产业周报：地缘溢价攀升-20260301

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of LPG this week are neutral to weak, but the market is highly volatile due to the Iran-US situation. The closure risk of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's status as an important LPG importer for China bring supply-side disturbances and inject risk premiums into the market [2][3]. - In the short term, the Iran-US situation remains the main disruptive factor, increasing supply risks. In the long - term, supply is expected to remain resilient, while demand growth in China and India is expected to slow down [6][11]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Cost - end: Risks in the crude oil market have increased, with the pricing core in the short term being the geopolitical risk premium in the Middle East. The Iran - US conflict has escalated, leading to a sharp rise in global risk - aversion sentiment and an 8% increase in the dark market [2]. - External market: Propane in the external market has continued to strengthen this week. The shipping volume in the Middle East is neutral, and a sudden device failure in Saudi Arabia, along with the de - facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has boosted prices [2]. - Domestic market: The domestic fundamentals have marginally weakened. The supply has increased due to higher commodity volume and arrivals, and both factory and port inventories have risen. The PDH operating rate has slightly declined and is in the process of recovery, with some devices still under maintenance. If Middle East supply is disrupted, future arrivals are expected to be low, which will support prices [3]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Market positioning: The market is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with the price range of PG04 between 4,200 and 4,800 [15]. - Basis strategy: The basis is expected to shrink, as the futures price has a premium due to geopolitical conflicts, and the spot price may follow the increase but to a lesser extent [16]. - Calendar spread strategy: Consider reverse arbitrage at high prices, as the fundamentals of the near - term contract have marginally weakened, while the far - term contract is relatively stronger due to overseas prices and domestic maintenance expectations [17]. - Hedging and arbitrage strategy: Pay attention to the opportunities in the domestic - foreign price spread [18]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Price range prediction: The predicted monthly price range for LPG is 4,200 - 4,800, with a current volatility of 28.91% and a historical volatility percentage of 68.03% over three years [19]. - Hedging strategies: For inventory management, when inventory is high, consider shorting PG2604 futures or selling call options on PG2604C5000 to lock in profits. For procurement management, when inventory is low, consider buying PG2604 futures or selling put options on PG2604P4000 at low prices to lock in procurement costs [19]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: Saudi Arabia cancelled the FOB shipping plan from March 1 - 24, 2026, due to a device failure. The Iranian Islamic Guard announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, causing shipping stagnation [20]. - Bearish information: OPEC+ is considering increasing the oil production increase to up to 411,000 barrels per day, compared to the previous estimate of maintaining a 137,000 - barrel - per - day increase in the fourth quarter [20]. 2.2 Next Week's Events to Watch - Focus on the development of the Iran - US situation, the US ISM manufacturing index for February on March 2, China's official manufacturing PMI on March 4, and the US unemployment rate for February on March 6 [21]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Fund Interpretation - Domestic market: The PG04 contract has been fluctuating this week. The net positions of major profit - making seats have decreased, while both the top 5 long and short positions in the order book have significantly increased. Foreign investors' net long positions have slightly increased, and retail investors' net long positions have slightly decreased. Technically, the contract is above the middle Bollinger Band, with resistance at 4,600. It is expected to gap up on Monday due to the Iran - US situation, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [22]. - The LPG term structure shows a BACK structure, with the 3 - 4 month spread at - 477 yuan/ton and the 4 - 5 month spread at 75 yuan/ton [25]. - External market: FEI M1 closed at $610.82/ton (+$44.66), CP M1 at $539.75/ton (+$0.62), and MB M1 at $350.89/ton (+$10.42). The market has generally risen due to the Iran - US situation and the Saudi device failure. The FEI M1 - M2 spread is $47.50/ton, the CP M1 - M2 spread is - $3.5/ton, and the MB M1 - M2 spread is $2.39/ton. The FEI spread has strengthened significantly due to buying and freight factors [28][32]. - Regional price spread: The FEI - MB spread has widened significantly, and the US - Asia arbitrage window has remained open. The spread between FEI and CP has weakened significantly [34]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - Upstream profit: The gross profit of major refineries this week is 749 yuan/ton (- 147 yuan), and that of Shandong local refineries is 75 yuan/ton (+172 yuan). The profit of local refineries has continued to shrink [37]. - Downstream profit: The PDH profit with FEI as the cost is - 561 yuan/ton, and that with CP as the cost is - 268 yuan/ton, remaining in a loss state. The MTBE gas - fractionation profit is - 21 yuan/ton, the isomerization profit is 68 yuan, and the alkylation oil profit is - 129 yuan/ton, with profits slightly weakening [39]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - This week, the import profit has been fluctuating, and the import profit in South China has weakened [42]. Chapter 5: Supply, Demand, and Inventory 5.1 Overseas Supply and Demand - US supply and demand: Production has recovered, demand has declined from a high level, and the inventory - reduction pace has slowed, in line with seasonal patterns. In 2025, the US exported 68,283 kt of LPG, a 2.52% year - on - year increase. In February 2026, it exported 5,471 kt, a 9.98% year - on - year increase, with a large amount sent to Japan and South Korea. This week's shipments are neutral, with a decline in the volume sent to China [48][55]. - Middle East supply: In 2025, the Middle East exported 48,463 kt of LPG, a 2.43% year - on - year increase. In February 2026, it exported 3,570 kt, a 2.23% year - on - year decrease. Shipments in recent weeks have been low. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the Saudi device failure may affect exports to Asia by 90,000 barrels per day [59]. - India supply and demand: From January to December, India's LPG demand was 331,774 kt, a 6.67% year - on - year increase. In 2025, it imported 23,229 kt, an 8.12% year - on - year increase. In February 2026, it imported 2,149 kt, a 16.66% year - on - year increase [62]. - South Korea supply and demand: South Korea's LPG demand has no obvious seasonality, mainly for chemical use. In 2025, it imported 8,434 kt, a 2.56% year - on - year decrease. In February 2026, it imported 601 kt, a 4.96% year - on - year increase. Since the fourth quarter, the cracking economy of LPG relative to naphtha has not been good [66]. - Japan supply and demand: Japan is highly dependent on LPG imports, and its demand and imports have obvious seasonality. In February 2026, it imported 1,053 kt, a 23.22% year - on - year increase, and its LPG inventory was at a new low [68]. 5.2 Domestic Supply and Demand - Domestic supply and demand balance: Supply is expected to remain high, but the external sales volume is not high. Import volume is not high according to shipping data. Demand shows a decrease in chemical demand and an increase in combustion demand. The overall inventory is decreasing, mainly at the port [77]. - Domestic supply: The operating rate of major refineries is 81.81% (+1.79%), and that of independent refineries is 51.68% (- 1.92%). The domestic LPG external sales volume is 548,800 tons (+5,100 tons), and the arrival volume is 508,000 tons (+13,000 tons). The factory inventory rate is 24.21% (- 0.39%), and the port inventory is 2,018,000 tons (+142,000 tons) [81]. - Domestic demand: PDH demand: Some devices such as Jinneng, Zhongjing, and Juzhengyuan are under maintenance. MTBE demand: There are no device changes this week, and the domestic - foreign price spread is strengthening. Alkylation oil demand: There are no device changes this week. Combustion demand: No specific data changes are mentioned, but the overall combustion demand is increasing [90][92][98].