铜产业链周度报告-20260301

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical disturbance in Iran is intensifying, and the long - term fundamentals of copper remain good, but the current fundamentals are weak. It is expected that the copper price will remain firm, but the upside space is limited. The report suggests investors maintain the idea of buying on dips. Low - cost funds can consider risk - free term arbitrage opportunities due to the high C - structure of SHFE copper terms [3][6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Trading End - Volatility: LME and INE copper price volatilities are rising, while SHFE and COMEX copper price volatilities are falling. The LME copper price volatility is around 19%, and the SHFE copper volatility is about 46%, slightly down from the previous week [11]. - Term Spread: The SHFE copper term structure is weakening, the LME copper spot discount is narrowing, and the COMEX copper near - end C - structure is narrowing. On February 27, the SHFE 02 - 03 spread was - 600 yuan/ton, the LME 0 - 3 discount was 49.47 dollars/ton, and the spread between the 03 and 04 contracts of COMEX copper was - 41.89 dollars/ton [13][15]. - Position: SHFE copper positions are increasing, while LME and INE copper positions are decreasing. The SHFE copper positions increased by 24,700 lots to 578,500 lots [16]. - Fund and Industry Position: LME commercial short net positions decreased from 44,600 lots on February 13 to 44,500 lots on February 20; CFTC non - commercial long net positions decreased from 59,300 lots on February 17 to 58,400 lots on February 24 [22]. - Spot Premium and Discount: The domestic copper spot has changed from par to a discount of 260 yuan/ton on February 27. The Yangshan Port copper premium has recovered from 33 dollars/ton on February 13 to 50 dollars/ton on February 27. The US copper premium remains at 7.5 cents/pound, the Rotterdam copper premium is maintained at 190 dollars/ton, and the Southeast Asian copper premium is stable at 120 dollars/ton [26][29]. - Inventory: The global total copper inventory has increased from 1.1452 million tons on February 12 to 1.3888 million tons on February 26. Domestic social inventory, bonded area inventory, COMEX inventory, and LME copper inventory all increased [30][33]. - Position - to - Inventory Ratio: The position - to - inventory ratio of SHFE copper 03 contract and LME copper has declined. The SHFE copper ratio is at a relatively low level in the same period of history, indicating a weakening of the overseas spot - driven logic [34]. 3.2 Supply End - Copper Concentrate: The import of copper concentrate has increased year - on - year. In December 2025, China's import of copper ore and its concentrates was 2.7043 million tons. The port inventory of copper concentrate has increased from 475,000 tons on February 13 to 514,000 tons on February 27. The processing fee of copper concentrate remains weak, and the smelting loss has slightly recovered from 2,110 yuan/ton on February 13 to 2,099 yuan/ton on February 27 [37][40]. - Recycled Copper: The import of recycled copper has increased year - on - year, with 239,000 tons imported in December. The domestic production of recycled copper has increased significantly year - on - year, with 97,700 tons produced in September. The refined - scrap spread of recycled copper has narrowed and is above the break - even point, and the import profit of recycled copper has also narrowed [41][46]. - Blister Copper: The import of blister copper has increased month - on - month, with 61,300 tons imported in December. The processing fee of blister copper has recovered in February, with the southern processing fee at 2,350 yuan/ton and the import processing fee at 95 dollars/ton [49]. - Refined Copper: The domestic refined copper production has increased year - on - year, with 1.1424 million tons produced in February. The import of refined copper has decreased, with 260,200 tons imported in December. The loss of copper spot import has widened from 508.88 yuan/ton on February 13 to 1,001.62 yuan/ton on February 27 [52]. 3.3 Demand End - 开工率: In January, the operating rates of copper tube and copper plate - strip - foil enterprises rebounded and were higher than the same period last year. The operating rate of wire and cable enterprises rebounded marginally in the week of February 26 [56]. - Profit: The processing fee of copper rods is at a historically low level in the same period, and the processing fee of copper tubes has declined. The processing fees of copper plates and strips and lithium - ion copper foils are stable at a low level [58][60]. - Raw Material Inventory: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises remains at a low level. In January, the raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a neutral - low level in the same period of history, and the raw material inventory of copper tubes was at a low level in the same period of history. The weekly raw material inventory of wire and cable has rebounded marginally [61]. - Finished Product Inventory: The finished product inventory of copper rods is at a high level in the same period of history, the finished product inventory of copper tubes is at a neutral - low level in the same period of history, and the weekly finished product inventory of wire and cable has decreased [64]. 3.4 Consumption End - Apparent Consumption: The actual and apparent consumption of domestic copper is good. The cumulative consumption from January to December was 15.8257 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.88%, and the apparent consumption was 15.9903 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.23%. The power grid investment, home appliances, and new energy industries are important supports for copper consumption, but the power grid investment growth has slowed down [69][71]. - Air - Conditioner and New - Energy Vehicle: In December, the domestic air - conditioner production was 14.782 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 18.66%. In January 2026, the domestic new - energy vehicle production was 1.041 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.56% [72].