瑞幸咖啡：2025Q4业绩点评：Q4同店环比降速，持续推进规模增长

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company focuses on growth and continues to prioritize market share, with short-term fluctuations in profit margins not affecting its long-term value [2] - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with projected revenues increasing significantly over the next few years [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to reach 34,475 million RMB in 2024, increasing to 72,692 million RMB by 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 38.44% from 2024 to 2025 and gradually decreasing to 9.01% by 2028 [5] - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to grow from 3,287 million RMB in 2024 to 6,557 million RMB in 2028, with a notable increase of 27.67% in 2025 [5] - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 22.23 in 2024 to 13.81 in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics [5] Operational Performance - In Q4 2025, the company reported a revenue of 12.8 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 32.9%, with a gross merchandise volume (GMV) of 14.8 billion RMB, also up by 32.8% [7] - The number of stores reached 31,048 by Q4 2025, representing a 39% year-on-year increase, with a net addition of 1,834 stores in Q4 alone [7] - Same-store sales growth slowed to 1.2% in Q4 2025 from 14.4% in Q3 2025, indicating a potential challenge in maintaining sales momentum [7] Market Position - The company has successfully increased its market share, with over 1.1 billion new transaction customers added in 2025, bringing the total to over 450 million by year-end [7] - The sales volume of freshly made beverages grew by 39% year-on-year, reaching 4.1 billion cups, further solidifying the company's market position [7] Future Projections - The forecast for GAAP net profit is set at 41.11 billion RMB for 2026, with a year-on-year growth of 14%, and Non-GAAP net profit is projected at 52.77 billion RMB, reflecting a 26% increase [7] - The target price for the company's stock is set at 53.23 USD, based on a 20x PE ratio applied to the 2026 Non-GAAP net profit [7]