行业研究|行业周报|煤炭与消费用燃料：从美伊冲突升级看煤炭价值重估-20260301

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [7] Core Insights - The escalation of the US-Iran conflict, combined with changes in Indonesia's coal supply policy, marks a significant moment for the revaluation of coal assets. Historical analysis of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict indicates that while oil price increases do not directly translate to coal price hikes, they can trigger energy substitution mechanisms that enhance coal's price elasticity. Current expectations of reduced coal exports from Indonesia due to a production quota of 600 million tons have heightened confidence in rising coal prices, leading to a tangible revaluation of domestic coal assets [2][5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal index (Yangtze) increased by 5.84%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.76 percentage points, ranking 4th out of 32 industries. The thermal coal price at Qinhuangdao port reached 745 RMB/ton, up 23 RMB/ton from before the holiday. The outlook suggests that coal prices may continue to rise due to external shocks and reduced import expectations, with key factors to monitor including Indonesian supply disruptions and seasonal demand [13][31] Supply and Demand Analysis - As of February 26, the daily coal consumption across 25 provinces was 4.812 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 30.5%. The coal supply was 4.29 million tons, up 26.8% from the previous week. However, coal inventory decreased by 0.9% to 11.976 million tons, with a usable days supply of 24.9 days, down 7.9 days [31][33] Price Trends - The price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 745 RMB/ton as of February 27, reflecting a 3.19% increase from February 14. The price of coking coal at Jingtang port remained stable at 1660 RMB/ton [42][49] Stock Performance - The top five performing coal stocks this week included Jiangxi Tungsten (38.99%), Yunnan Coal Energy (14.48%), and Yongtai Energy (12.27%). Conversely, the bottom five performers were Pingmei Shenma (1.83%), China Shenhua (1.95%), and Yanzhou Coal Mining (2.13%) [24][27]