矿石价格下行趋势放缓，氧化铝供给扰动持续

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for alumina is "Oscillating" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The downward trend of ore prices has slowed, and supply disruptions in the alumina market continue. The industry is still in a downward cycle, and while there is no strong basis for a significant price rebound, the downside for spot prices is also limited [1][2][16] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - Raw Materials: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. Shanxi 58/5 grade ore had a delivered - tax - included price of 640 yuan, and Henan 58/5 bauxite was at 610 yuan/ton. Due to the Spring Festival, most mines were in a shutdown period, and no substantial transactions occurred in the domestic bauxite market. The average price of Guinean 45/3 ore was 60.5 US dollars/dry ton. Mines and traders intended to stabilize prices. After a slight increase in freight, the FOB price in Guinea fell below the cost of some mines. 5.396 million tons of new ore arrived, including 4.651 million tons from Guinea and 0.745 million tons from Australia. The reference price for Cape ships from Guinea to China was 23.5 US dollars/ton [2][12] - Alumina: Alumina spot prices rose slightly last week. The ALD northern comprehensive price was 2610 - 2650 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous week; the domestic weighted index was 2659.9 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton. The port price of imported alumina was 2950 - 2970 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton. A large - scale northern alumina enterprise had a policy - related shutdown, leading to a quantitative accumulation of tight order execution. Overseas markets were stable, with no news of spot transactions. As of the end of the week, the full cost of domestic alumina was 2586 yuan/ton, and the real - time profit was 77 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, the second - phase roasting furnaces of a large northern alumina enterprise were completely shut down due to policy, and two alumina enterprises in Shanxi were in a phased maintenance state and had not resumed operation. The national alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons, with 93.5 million tons in operation, a decrease of 200,000 tons from the previous week, and the operating rate was 81.6% [3][13] - Demand: Domestically, the new production capacity of the second phase of Huomeihongjun Zhalv reached 960,000 tons, but the commissioning progress was slow. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 44.503 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons week - on - week. Overseas, the first phase of the Indonesia Xinfa Juwang electrolytic aluminum plant was commissioned, with a current operating capacity of 250,000 tons. The expansion project of the Balco electrolytic aluminum plant under India's Vedanta was slowly being commissioned, with a current operating capacity of about 780,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons. The Angolan Huatong Industrial electrolytic aluminum project started on January 15, 2026, with a current operating capacity of 32,000 tons. The latest overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 300.1 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons week - on - week [14] - Inventory: As of February 26, the national alumina inventory was 5.284 million tons, an increase of 49,000 tons from before the Spring Festival. The inventory change narrowed before and after the Spring Festival. Railway transportation was good during and after the festival, and the volume of some traders' railway transportation increased. The volume on the railway platforms around alumina factories generally increased. Road transportation recovered earlier during the festival. The on - the - way road transportation volume decreased during the festival and then rebounded rapidly. The number of queuing vehicles for pick - up at some alumina factories increased. The static inventory of alumina in electrolytic aluminum enterprises decreased significantly due to supply mismatch, transportation capacity mismatch, and the stable operation of the electrolytic aluminum industry during the Spring Festival. The inventory changes of alumina enterprises showed greater differentiation. The inventory of small and medium - sized alumina enterprises mainly relying on road transportation increased relatively, the inventory of production - reducing enterprises decreased significantly, and the inventory of alumina enterprises mainly relying on railway transportation increased or decreased differently. The inventory in delivery warehouses and ports increased significantly [15] - Warehouse Receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 310,658 tons, an increase of 47,927 tons from the previous week. The alumina futures price was weak. Supply disruptions from large northern factories supported the price. Considering the current supply and demand, the surplus margin was slightly alleviated, and the downward trend of costs was mitigated [16] 3.2 Alumina Theoretical Import Profit Narrowed - Increased Intention for Spot Premium Trading: Recently, spot bargaining mainly by trade participants has become more active, including arbitrage spot bargaining between futures - cash traders and alumina enterprises, as well as spot bargaining by industrial traders for short - term procurement to fulfill long - term terminal orders. Overall, buyers are worried about overpaying at a fixed price, while sellers have a stronger intention to sell at a significant premium. Most transactions are settled at a discount to the average price of institutional quotes, and the discount range has narrowed significantly. Currently, both the actual transaction price and the mainstream evaluation price are at a premium compared to institutional quotes. The combination of market - making transactions and sporadic transactions for rigid demand has increased the expectation of price increase [17] - Obvious Node Characteristics, Spot Prices Oscillating Upward: Many electrolytic aluminum enterprises said that transportation capacity was basically stable during the festival, and their alumina inventory remained stable or decreased slightly, so there was no need to enter the spot market to stir up market sentiment. Xinjiang aluminum plants will conduct a regular tender for procurement tomorrow (the 25th). According to information from multiple traditional suppliers, the current quotes are cautious and are mainly at a premium compared to institutional quotes [17] 3.3 Key Data Monitoring of the Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream - Raw Materials and Cost Side: The report provides charts on domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, port shipping volume of major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory of major bauxite - importing countries, domestic caustic soda price trends, domestic thermal coal price trends, and alumina production costs in various provinces [18][20][22] - Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance: It includes charts on domestic alumina spot prices in various provinces, imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina [33][36][43] - Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: There are charts on the alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants, the alumina inventory of alumina plants, domestic alumina yard/platform/on - the - way inventory, alumina port inventory, domestic total social alumina inventory, the warehouse receipt volume and open interest of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the ratio of open interest to warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [45][48][54]