高端消费回暖趋势持续，关注黄金珠宝与免税

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the duty-free and gold jewelry sectors, recommending continued investment in these areas due to expected long-term growth [5][12][14]. Core Insights - Duty-Free: The duty-free sales during the Spring Festival showed steady performance, with daily shopping amounts increasing by 16.5% year-on-year. However, high market expectations led to temporary stock price pressure. The report anticipates that the recovery of high-end consumption and the return of Japanese tourists will support long-term growth [12][13]. - Gold Jewelry: The gold price has recently broken upward after a period of consolidation. Major brands have successfully implemented price increases, with old gold prices rising by 20%-30%, marking a historical high for the company. Consumer acceptance of these price hikes has exceeded expectations, indicating strong brand power [14][15]. Industry Data Tracking - GMV Performance: In the fourth week of January, the combined GMV of Tmall and JD.com increased by 81.52% year-on-year, likely influenced by the timing of the New Year goods festival. The top five categories showing growth were automotive, home improvement, books and audio-visual products, watches, and outdoor sports [2][19]. - Category Performance: The report highlights that the retail sector is experiencing varied performance, with supermarkets under slight pressure, while e-commerce is stabilizing at the bottom and cross-border e-commerce is showing steady growth [4]. Market Review - The report notes that major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index experienced declines of -1.27% and -2.11% respectively during the week of February 23-27, 2026. The retail sector ranked ninth among nine major consumption sectors in terms of performance [21][24]. Investment Recommendations - Gold Jewelry: The report recommends investing in old gold due to strong consumer acceptance of price increases and the potential for margin optimization. The company is expected to continue optimizing store operations and enhancing high-end customer strategies [5][29]. - Duty-Free: The establishment of the Hainan Free Trade Port is expected to significantly boost local and national duty-free businesses, alongside the ongoing recovery of high-end consumption, making this sector worthy of continued attention [5][12].