周观：震荡格局延续，政策催化仍待确认（2026年第8期）

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views - After the Spring Festival, the bond yield changed from a downward trend before the holiday to an upward trend, which is in line with the previous week's judgment that it is difficult for bond yields to decline smoothly. The reasons for the interest rate increase this week can be divided into exogenous and endogenous factors. The exogenous factor is the release of Shanghai's housing market "Seven Measures", and the endogenous factor is the profit - taking of trading positions after the holiday [16]. - The new housing policy in Shanghai is expected to be followed by other first - tier cities such as Beijing and Shenzhen, but the recovery of the real estate market still takes time, and the impact of this policy on the bond market has come to a temporary end [16]. - The central bank's decision to lower the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales business can cool down the one - sided appreciation expectation of the RMB, and after the exchange rate stabilizes, the central bank will have more autonomy in formulating domestic monetary policies, which has a marginal positive effect on the bond market [17]. - In the later stage, the decline of bond yields requires further catalysts and is likely to remain volatile. New catalysts include the policy tone in the Two Sessions report, the implementation of the central bank's reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cut expectations, and the substantial change in price data [17]. - Due to the escalation of the US - Iran situation, the main oil shipping index has risen rapidly, and the capital market is gradually pricing the escalation of the situation. The safe - haven sentiment has increased significantly, and the market may shift to pricing stagflation in the short term, which is beneficial to gold and the short - end of US Treasury bonds [18]. - The US CPI shows that inflation stickiness still exists, and the Fed's policy decision needs to carefully balance between growth and inflation. The US steel industry is affected by the uncertainty of manufacturing demand and changes in global commodity prices. The US mortgage interest rate shows a downward trend, which helps to boost housing demand but also needs to be vigilant against its potential impact on inflation expectations. The resilience of the US labor market is gradually weakening. Fed officials have sent hawkish signals, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut probability has changed [19][22][27][28]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 One - Week View - Bond Market Review: From February 13 to February 27, 2026, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016 rose 2.2bp from 1.78% to 1.802%. During the week, factors such as Trump's new tariff policy, the release of LPR, the central bank's MLF operation, and the relaxation of Shanghai's housing market policy affected the bond market [11][12]. - Analysis of Interest Rate Increase Reasons: The interest rate increase after the Spring Festival is due to the release of Shanghai's housing market "Seven Measures" and the profit - taking of trading positions after the holiday. The new housing policy in Shanghai is expected to further activate the second - hand housing market, and other first - tier cities may follow, but the real estate market recovery still takes time [16]. - Impact of Exchange Rate Policy: The central bank's decision to lower the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales business from 20% to 0 can balance the supply and demand relationship in the foreign exchange market, cool down the one - sided appreciation expectation of the RMB, and increase the possibility of the central bank supporting the real economy through reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, which has a marginal positive effect on the bond market [17]. - Outlook for the Bond Market: Bond yields are likely to remain volatile, and new catalysts are needed for a decline, including policy tone in the Two Sessions report, implementation of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cut expectations, and substantial changes in price data [17]. - Analysis of US Economic Data and Bond Yields: The escalation of the US - Iran situation has led to an increase in safe - haven sentiment. The US CPI shows inflation stickiness, the steel industry is volatile, mortgage interest rates are declining, the labor market's resilience is weakening, and Fed officials have sent hawkish signals. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut probability has changed [18][19][22][27][28]. 3.2 Domestic and Foreign Data Summary 3.2.1 Liquidity Tracking - Open Market Operations: From February 24 to February 27, 2026, the net investment in the open market was - 13264 billion yuan. The central bank carried out operations such as reverse repurchase and MLF [32]. - Interest Rate Indicators: The money market interest rate, interest rate bond issuance volume, and other indicators have changed. For example, the money market interest rate has increased compared with the previous week [33][34]. 3.2.2 Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data Tracking - Commodity Prices: Steel prices have generally declined, while LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices have generally increased [48][49]. - Other Indicators: The prices of coal, vegetables, and crude oil, as well as various stock market and foreign exchange market indicators, have also changed [52][55][57]. 3.3 One - Week Review of Local Government Bonds 3.3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - Issuance Scale: A total of 27 local government bonds were issued in the primary market this week, with a total issuance amount of 256.42 billion yuan, including 116.68 billion yuan of refinancing bonds, 12.5 billion yuan of new general bonds, and 127.24 billion yuan of new special bonds. The repayment amount was 65.992 billion yuan, and the net financing amount was 190.429 billion yuan [70]. - Regional Distribution: 8 provinces and cities issued local government bonds this week. The top five provinces and cities in terms of issuance amount were Jiangsu, Hunan, Hebei, Liaoning, and Chongqing [75]. - Special Refinancing Bonds: 3 provinces and cities issued local special refinancing special bonds for replacing hidden debts, with a total issuance amount of 93.4 billion yuan. Since January 1, 2026, the total issuance amount of such bonds nationwide has been 683.342 billion yuan [78]. - Early Redemption of Urban Investment Bonds: The total scale of early redemption of urban investment bonds this week was 1 billion yuan, all from Chongqing [79]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market Overview - Trading Volume and Turnover Rate: The stock of local government bonds this week was 56.38 trillion yuan, the trading volume was 231.118 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.41%. The top three provinces with active trading were Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Shandong, and the top three active trading maturities were 10Y, 30Y, and 20Y [88]. - Yield Changes: The maturity yields of local government bonds have generally declined [90]. 3.3.3 Local Government Bond Issuance Plan for This Month There is a local government bond issuance plan chart, but specific data is not described in detail in the text [92]. 3.4 One - Week Review of the Credit Bond Market 3.4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - Overall Issuance: A total of 122 credit bonds were issued in the primary market this week, with a total issuance amount of 94.315 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 184.404 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of - 90.089 billion yuan, a decrease of 126.402 billion yuan compared with last week [92]. - Sub - category Issuance: Urban investment bonds had a net financing amount of - 48.078 billion yuan, and industrial bonds had a net financing amount of - 42.011 billion yuan. By bond type, short - term financing bonds had a net financing amount of 13.119 billion yuan, medium - term notes had a net financing amount of - 45.139 billion yuan, enterprise bonds had a net financing amount of - 2.885 billion yuan, corporate bonds had a net financing amount of - 49.002 billion yuan, and private placement notes had a net financing amount of - 6.183 billion yuan [97][99]. 3.4.2 Issuance Interest Rates The issuance interest rates of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, and corporate bonds have changed. For example, the issuance interest rate of short - term financing bonds decreased by 3.10bp, and the issuance interest rate of medium - term notes decreased by 17.25bp [108]. 3.4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview The total trading volume of credit bonds this week was 315.571 billion yuan, with different trading volumes for different bond types and ratings [109]. 3.4.4 Maturity Yields The maturity yields of national development bonds have generally increased, and the yields of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds have shown different trends [111][114][116]. 3.4.5 Credit Spreads The credit spreads of short - term financing bonds and medium - term notes have generally declined, while the credit spreads of enterprise bonds and urban investment bonds have generally increased [117][122][124]. 3.4.6 Grade Spreads The grade spreads of short - term financing bonds and medium - term notes have generally declined, while the grade spreads of enterprise bonds and urban investment bonds have shown a differentiated trend [128][135][137]. 3.4.7 Trading Activity The top five most actively traded bonds in each bond type are listed, and the industrial industry has the largest weekly trading volume of bonds [140][141]. 3.4.8 Subject Rating Changes There is no specific information about subject rating changes in the text, only a table is mentioned [142].