策略周末谈：康波萧条期的全面加速

Core Conclusions - The trend in 2026 is entering an acceleration phase due to the "three invariants" during the Kondratiev depression period [2] - The direction of RMB appreciation remains unchanged, with adjustments mainly in the pace of appreciation [13][14] - Global secondary inflation is inevitable, driven by factors beyond consumer support [24][29] - The logic of the commodity supercycle is accelerating due to geopolitical tensions and strategic stockpiling [32][33] Group 1: RMB Appreciation - The offshore RMB exchange rate has reached new highs, indicating accelerated cross-border capital inflows [13] - The central bank's adjustments focus on the slope rather than the direction of the exchange rate [14] - Historical data suggests that similar regulatory policies have limited impact on long-term exchange rate trends [14][18] Group 2: Global Secondary Inflation - The market's expectation of a "soft landing" is merely a short-term illusion, with secondary inflation being unavoidable [24] - The January PPI data in the US exceeded expectations, indicating inflation driven by core goods and trade rather than consumer spending [24][25] - The correlation between PPI and effective exchange rates has strengthened since 2022, suggesting a more robust inflationary trend [29][30] Group 3: Commodity Supercycle - Geopolitical risks are driving demand for strategic stockpiling, marking the acceleration of the commodity supercycle [32] - Historical patterns indicate that during wartime, credit currencies depreciate rapidly, leading to significant increases in commodity prices [33] - The current geopolitical landscape is reminiscent of past commodity cycles, emphasizing the importance of physical asset allocation [33][34] Group 4: Dollar Tides in the Kondratiev Depression - The "three invariants" suggest that the trend in 2026 is not a turning point but an acceleration [38] - The dollar's influence has shifted through various phases, with the current phase favoring US assets due to AI-driven capital inflows [38][39] - The commodity supercycle is expected to expand, with A-shares potentially outperforming US stocks as liquidity issues arise in the latter [39] Group 5: Embracing the Commodity Supercycle - The year 2026 is anticipated to witness a wave of prosperity for "catch-up" countries, driven by moderate inflation and improving profits [43] - Investment strategies should focus on sectors benefiting from the commodity supercycle, including refining, precious metals, and coal [43]