宏观与大类资产周报：美伊局势有没有约束条件？-20260301

Domestic Outlook - The local two sessions have concluded, with national growth targets for 2026 expected to be cautiously set between 4.5% and 5%[1] - The carbon reduction task is more challenging than during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with carbon reduction likely to be a structural highlight this year[1] International Developments - The central bank has lowered the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales from 20% to 0%, aiming to curb the rapid appreciation of the RMB[1] - The U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran on February 28, with Iranian media confirming the death of Khamenei on March 1. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is a critical turning point, with potential oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel posing significant downside risks to the U.S. economy[1] - WTI crude oil prices are expected to reach $75-80 per barrel, with the annual average likely in the $65-70 range[1] Asset Performance - Geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices may temporarily hinder equity assets, while PPI-related assets are likely to continue benefiting[1] - The anticipated early positive turn in PPI year-on-year in Q2 aligns with favorable conditions for sectors such as electricity, construction materials, steel, chemicals, coal, and non-ferrous metals[1] Monetary Liquidity - From February 24 to February 28, the central bank achieved a net withdrawal of funds, with the 7-day reverse repo net injection totaling 788.6 billion yuan and a net withdrawal of 1.4 trillion yuan for 14-day reverse repos[2] - As of February 27, the prices for R001, DR001, R007, and DR007 have decreased by 9.46, 2.25, 8.10, and 7.40 basis points respectively compared to the beginning of the week[2]