收益率多上行但利差分化,5年以内普信相对抗跌
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2026-03-01 12:03
- Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Yields mostly increased, and credit spreads showed differentiation. General credit bonds (Pu Xin) performed better than Tier 2 and perpetual bonds. It is recommended to be cautious about long - term assets and focus on medium - and short - term credit bonds within 5 years [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Primary Market - General Credit Bonds: The net supply of general credit bonds decreased compared to the previous period. The issuance of industrial bonds decreased to 503 billion yuan, and the net financing turned negative to - 294 billion yuan. The issuance of urban investment bonds decreased to 449 billion yuan, and the net financing turned negative to - 598 billion yuan. The weighted issuance term was 2.17 years, a decrease from the previous period [5][9]. - Bank Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds: There was no new issuance or maturity of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds this period. This has been the case for 8 consecutive weeks this year [5][27]. 3.2 Secondary Market - Yields: Yields generally increased. Except for some low - quality medium - term notes, 3 - year non - public and perpetual bonds, most general credit bonds' yields increased. Tier 2 and perpetual bonds' yields increased across the board except for the 5 - year AA - perpetual bonds, with larger increases in the medium - and long - term [5][40]. - Credit Spreads: Credit spreads showed differentiation. General credit bonds' spreads mostly narrowed except for the 7 - year ones, and low - quality bonds within 5 years performed well. Tier 2 and perpetual bonds' spreads mostly widened except for the 1 - year and 10 - year ones [5][44]. - Turnover Rate: The turnover rates of general credit bonds and bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds both decreased this week [55]. 3.3 Credit Strategy - Be cautious about long - term assets and focus on medium - and short - term credit bonds within 5 years. Consider the ticket - coupon value of some varieties and grade - sinking. Pay attention to investment opportunities in certain bonds such as real estate bonds of leading central and state - owned enterprises within 2 years, low - quality urban investment bonds within 3 years, medium - and high - grade perpetual or private general credit bonds around 3 years, and high - grade insurance sub - bonds from 3 - 5 years [5]. - For Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, pay attention to the approval progress of the People's Bank of China in March and the possibility of resuming issuance. In the short term, focus on the trading value of 6 - 7 - year Tier 2 and perpetual bonds [5]. 3.4 Urban Investment Bonds - Yields and credit spreads in different regions showed differentiation, with high - grade yields increasing and low - grade yields decreasing [58]. - The trading volume and turnover rate in different regions also showed different trends [63][65]. 3.5 Industrial Bonds - Yields and credit spreads in different industries showed differentiation, with low - grade bonds performing better than high - grade ones [66]. - The trading volume and turnover rate in different industries also showed different trends [70][73]. 3.6 Financial Bonds - Yields mostly increased, Tier 2 and perpetual bond spreads mostly widened, and the spreads of securities and insurance sub - bonds showed differentiation [74]. - The performance of yields, credit spreads, and excess spreads of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, as well as securities and insurance sub - bonds in different regions and with different ratings, is presented in detail [93][105]. 3.7 Stock Bond Distribution - The current yields are mostly distributed within 2.4%. The average yield distributions of industrial bonds in different industries and urban investment bonds in different regions are provided, including different implicit ratings and remaining maturities [107][108][110].