固定收益策略报告：债市在如何定价地产周期？-20260301

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Spring Festival, the market pricing logic shifted from "liquidity" to the re - evaluation of "fundamentals and policy paths". The introduction of the "Shanghai Seven - Point Plan" and the weak rebound of some real - estate high - frequency indicators catalyzed the discussion on real - estate expectations. The sustainability of the weak rebound needs to be verified, and the real - estate cycle will continue to be a point of long - short game for interest rates this year [2][6]. - Through five - dimensional comparison, it is found that there is a significant "structural temperature difference" within the real - estate cycle, and long - term interest rates match the demand side most. The current long - term interest rate quantile is slightly lower than the cycle position indicated by the real - estate demand side, and the pricing deviation is worthy of continuous tracking [4][25]. - In the short term, the weak rebound of real - estate transactions and the "Shanghai Seven - Point Plan" have stabilized the short - term fundamental expectations. The growth target of the Two Sessions is expected to be lower than last year. The monetary policy remains loose, and the probability of a short - term interest rate cut is greater than a reserve requirement ratio cut. The bond market microstructure is still in a favorable range, but the main risks such as inflation have not reversed. Interest rates may shift from a rebound to a shock in the short term [4][26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Post - Festival Game Focus Shift - After the Spring Festival, interest rates fluctuated around the 1.8% key resistance level. The pre - festival trading focused on liquidity, while after the festival, with the approaching of the Two Sessions, the market focused on fundamentals and policy paths. The optimization of policies such as the "Shanghai Seven - Point Plan" and the weak rebound of real - estate high - frequency indicators catalyzed the discussion on real - estate expectations [2][6]. 3.2 Five - Dimensional Comparison of the Real - Estate Cycle and Interest Rate Cycle - Demand - side Comparison: In January 2026, the real - estate demand sentiment was at the 25% quantile since 2021, and the monthly average quantiles of 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond interest rates were about 20% and 25% respectively, which were basically matched. In February, the interest rate quantiles declined, with the 10 - year and 30 - year rates dropping to about 13% and 23% respectively, slightly lower than the January real - estate demand cycle position [3][10]. - High - frequency Indicator Comparison: In February 2026, the real - estate cycle position under the high - frequency caliber (27%) was slightly higher than the monthly average quantile of 30 - year Treasury bond interest rates (23%) [3][11]. - Development and Investment Indicator Comparison: As of December 2025, the comprehensive quantile of development and investment was about 10%, and the long - term interest rate quantile was higher than the real - estate cycle position reflected by development investment [3][16]. - Upstream Raw Material Price Comparison: As of February 2026, the comprehensive building material price quantile was slightly lower than 10%, lower than the long - term interest rate level [3][18]. - Real - Estate Credit Cycle Comparison: As of January 2026, the real - estate credit cycle indicators were still near the lowest level since 2021, and the quantile levels of 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond interest rates were higher than this credit cycle sentiment position [3][19]. 3.3 Bond Market Performance - Funds and Interest Rates: In the first week after the Spring Festival, the central bank net - withdrew funds. Due to the combination of fund withdrawal and the end of the month, the fund rate center increased slightly [31]. - Bond Yields: Most Treasury bond yields rose this week, with the ultra - long - term yields rising significantly. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased slightly to 1.78%, and the 10 - 1 - year term spread narrowed from 48bp to 46bp [32]. - Bond Market Trends: The bond market first fell and then rose this week. Affected by the relaxation of Shanghai's real - estate policies, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose in the early stage, and then rose due to the safe - haven sentiment caused by geopolitical conflicts [32][33]. - Fund Duration: From February 24 to 27, the median value of the public fund duration was basically stable at 2.67 years, and the duration divergence index decreased by 0.01 to 0.60 [37]. - Interest Rate Synchronous Indicators: Among the ten interest rate synchronous indicators released this week, "positive" and "negative" signals each accounted for 5/10. Compared with last week, the enterprise medium - and long - term loan balance growth rate and the US dollar index sent "positive" signals [40]. 3.4 Local Bond Issuance - Issuance Scale: This week, the local bond issuance scale was 173.9 billion yuan, and the net financing was 501.4 billion yuan, which decreased compared with the previous holiday. Compared with the same week in 2025, the issuance and net financing scale also decreased [42]. - Issuance Term: The weighted average issuance term of local bonds this week was 22 years, which was significantly higher than the 15 - year term before the holiday. The weighted average issuance term of special refinancing bonds increased by 12 years to 25 years [47]. - Issuance Spread: The weighted average value of the spread between the local bond issuance interest rate and the secondary local bond of the same term was 0bp this week, which continued to rise compared with - 3bp before the holiday. The issuance spreads of refinancing bonds increased significantly [49]. - Issuance Progress: As of February 27, 2026, the cumulative local bond issuance was 2.02 trillion yuan, which was significantly higher than 1.69 trillion yuan in the same period in 2025. The actual issuance progress in February was 121% of the planned issuance, and it is expected that the issuance will increase slightly next week [52][59].