运输端春运启示：高客座率下高价格弹性初现；制造端继续看好国产大飞机产业链：华创交运|航空强国月报（第1期）-20260301

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the aviation industry, highlighting strong demand and supply dynamics [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the high passenger load factor and price elasticity observed during the Spring Festival travel period, indicating a robust recovery in air travel demand [7][11]. - It notes that the domestic aviation market is experiencing a structural improvement in demand, driven by increased private travel and a resurgence in international travel [33][34]. - The report identifies significant growth opportunities within the domestic large aircraft manufacturing sector, particularly for companies involved in the production of commercial aircraft and engines [53]. Summary by Sections Aviation Transportation - The Spring Festival saw a record high in cross-regional passenger flow, with a total of 6.72 billion trips, averaging 258 million trips per day, a 5.9% increase from the previous year [11][12]. - Domestic passenger volume increased by 6.3% year-on-year, while the average ticket price rose by 4.3% during the same period [12][13]. - The report highlights two key trends for the 2026 Spring Festival: a surge in secondary travel and concentrated return trips, reflecting a shift in travel patterns [14][15]. - Investment recommendations include major airlines such as Air China, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines, as well as low-cost carriers like Spring Airlines, which are expected to benefit from high load factors and price elasticity [37]. Aviation Manufacturing - The report discusses the ongoing capacity ramp-up by major manufacturers Boeing and Airbus, with a combined backlog of over 15,000 aircraft orders [2][76]. - Boeing plans to increase its monthly production of the 737 model from 42 to 52 aircraft, while Airbus aims to reach a production rate of 70-75 A320 aircraft per month by the end of 2027 [82]. - GE Aviation reported a significant increase in engine deliveries, with 2,386 commercial engines delivered in 2025, including 1,802 LEAP engines, reflecting a 40% increase [93]. - Safran's LEAP engine deliveries reached a record high of 1,802 units, with a 28% year-on-year growth, driven by strong aftermarket activity [100]. - The report recommends focusing on the domestic large aircraft supply chain, particularly companies involved in engine manufacturing and key component suppliers [53][56].