日本股市策略周报：海通国际证券-20260301

Market Observation - Japan's stock market continued its strong momentum last week, with major indices reaching new highs. The Nikkei 225 closed at 58,850.27, gaining 2.4% for the week and accumulating a 16.9% increase year-to-date, indicating a marked acceleration in market risk appetite [1][3][19] - The TOPIX index also showed resilience, climbing 2.25% for the week, reflecting balanced performance across the main board of the Tokyo Stock Exchange, despite significant surges in AI-related stocks [3][19] Sector Performance - The sectors that saw the most significant gains in the Nikkei index were materials, electronics, and engineering, driven by improvements in fundamentals and heightened market sentiment. This indicates sustained interest in the AI data center supply chain [4] - Companies like Furukawa Electric and Fujikura, which are leaders in fiber optic modules, experienced strong price increases, alongside metals and materials firms such as Sumitomo Metal Mining and DOWA Holdings, reflecting optimistic expectations for demand and price increases in these raw materials [4] - The software sector also rebounded, with notable weekly gains in stocks like Nomura Research Institute (up 11.3%), Recruit (up 8.3%), and NEC (up 7%), driven by technical recovery and improved external sentiment [5] Economic Indicators - Recent discussions between Prime Minister Kishi and Bank of Japan Governor Ueda indicated a lack of support for further interest rate hikes, leading to a decrease in market expectations for additional rate increases. This was coupled with a slowdown in the growth rate of the consumer price index (CPI), which rose 2.0% year-on-year in January, down 0.4 percentage points from December [5][6] - The core CPI, excluding fresh food and energy, is expected to likely fall below 2% in February, marking the first time since March 2022 that it dips below this level, indicating an overall trend of slowing consumer prices in Japan [6]