国泰君安期货-原油周度报告-20260301

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Iran issue has triggered concerns about short - term extreme upward risks in oil prices. Geopolitical factors have a significant impact on the oil market, and short - term geopolitical premiums cannot be ignored. In the short term, both domestic and international oil prices may rise again, with Brent and WTI potentially challenging $75 - 80 per barrel, and SC potentially challenging 535 yuan per barrel. However, in the first half of the year, Brent and WTI still face significant downward pressure, and potential upward trends may be only temporary. In the second quarter, they may test $55 per barrel (revised upward), while the decline of SC may be less than that of international oil prices, testing 415 yuan per barrel (revised upward) [5][6]. - The global crude oil supply shows characteristics of regional differentiation and geopolitical dominance. Non - OPEC+ countries are the main source of supply growth, while sanctions and geopolitical factors have created a two - tier market and pushed up freight rates. Regional price differences are significant [6]. - Global crude oil demand shows a characteristic that structural growth is stronger than total growth, and trade flows have been significantly reshaped. Regional demand has changed, and refined oil demand is differentiated [6]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Overview - The Iran issue has triggered concerns about short - term extreme upward risks in oil prices. The supply is characterized by regional differentiation and geopolitical dominance, while the demand shows structural strength. In the short term, oil prices may rise again, but in the first half of the year, there is still significant downward pressure [5][6]. Macroeconomics - The gold - oil ratio has declined. Short - term inflation has fallen, and attention should be paid to medium - and long - term "re - inflation" trading. The RMB exchange rate has strengthened again, and social financing has stabilized [18][24][25]. Supply - OPEC+ production cuts: In March 2026, the increase in production was suspended. The eight OPEC+ member countries will decide whether to resume monthly production increases of 137,000 barrels per day from April at a meeting on March 1. In January, the production increase completion rate of OPEC 8 continued to decline to 60% [27][30][32]. - Supply situation of various countries: The production of non - OPEC+ countries such as the United States, Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina has been increasing significantly, while the supply of some countries has been affected by factors such as sanctions, geopolitics, and bad weather. For example, the export of CPC mixed crude oil from Kazakhstan is still restricted, and the production of Johan Castberg oil field in Norway has been shut down [6][9][10]. Demand - Refinery operating rates: The operating rates of refineries in the United States and Europe have rebounded, and the operating rates of major and local refineries in China have also rebounded [70]. - Global refining capacity changes: From 2025 - 2026, the net change in global refining capacity is an increase of 360,000 barrels per day, with new capacity mainly in the Middle East, Asia, and South America, and some refineries in Europe and North America have reduced or shut down capacity [72]. Inventory - US inventory: US commercial inventories have declined, and the inventory in Cushing is still significantly lower than the historical average. Refining margins have reached a high level [74][76]. - International inventory: European diesel inventories have declined, gasoline inventories have increased, and Singapore's inventories have increased. The global in - transit crude oil inventory has declined from a high level, and the global crude oil floating storage is high. Domestic refined oil margins have rebounded [78][80][81]. Price, Spread, and Position - Spot market: VLCC freight rates have risen to multi - year highs, and the demand in the Western region during the maintenance season is weak. Different regions have different market situations, such as the Middle East being affected by the US - Iran relationship and high freight rates, and the Americas being affected by the US court's decision on tariffs and the US - Iran situation [85][87]. - Basis, monthly spread, and SC valuation: The North American basis has stabilized, the monthly spread has stabilized, and the SC valuation is at a medium - low level with a stable monthly spread [94][95][96].