军工行业双周报：美以联合袭击伊朗，地缘政治风险加剧-20260301

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the defense and military industry [4] Core Insights - The geopolitical risks have escalated due to the US and Israel's joint attack on Iran, which is expected to strengthen military spending growth expectations [6][15] - China's military trade is anticipated to experience structural expansion opportunities, with domestic military equipment becoming a core choice for Middle Eastern countries [16][18] - The report highlights a significant calendar effect on the military industry index before and after the National People's Congress meetings [21][24] - The defense budget in China is projected to grow steadily by 7%-7.5% in 2026, focusing on new combat capabilities and network information system construction [21][24] - The report outlines two main lines of focus for the upcoming meetings: domestic substitution of high-end equipment and the cultivation of future industries and new combat capabilities [24][25] Summary by Sections Geopolitical Risks - The US and Israel launched a coordinated attack on Iran on February 28, 2026, leading to significant retaliatory actions from Iran [6][8] - The escalation of geopolitical risks is expected to enhance military procurement certainty, with a focus on main battle equipment and new combat capabilities [15] Military Trade Opportunities - China's military equipment is characterized by high cost-effectiveness and independence from political conditions, making it an attractive option for Middle Eastern countries [16][18] - The proportion of military trade in domestic major manufacturers is expected to increase from 3.82% to 10%-15%, indicating significant growth potential [18] Calendar Effect and Market Performance - The military industry index showed a notable increase of 4.4% in the month leading up to the National People's Congress, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [21][22] - Historical data indicates that the military index typically outperforms the Shanghai Composite before the meetings and underperforms afterward [21][23] Investment Recommendations - Focus on commercial aerospace, military trade, and intelligent equipment opportunities, with a strong demand forecast for the next five years [45] - Key companies to watch include those in the commercial aerospace sector, military trade, and the two-engine industry chain [47]