Orient Securities·2026-03-01 13:13Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the pig farming sector, indicating a positive outlook for pig prices in 2026, with cost-advantaged companies expected to achieve performance improvements [3][42]. Core Insights - Geopolitical tensions are driving expectations for price increases in bulk agricultural products, with a confirmed upward trend in grain prices and favorable fundamentals for planting and seed industries [2][36]. - The pig price is expected to recover as pessimistic expectations are likely to be reversed following the confirmation of bottom prices during the off-season [3][9]. - The report highlights structural growth trends in the post-cycle sector, with profits in the breeding industry chain expected to gradually transmit downstream after pig prices rebound [3][42]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs as of February 27 was 10.87 yuan/kg, down 6.45% week-on-week, while the average price of 15 kg piglets was 25.42 yuan/kg, down 0.31% week-on-week [12][51]. - The report notes that the average slaughter weight of pigs is at a historical low of 88.29 kg, indicating limited downside price potential in the future [12][51]. Poultry - The price of white feather broilers was 7.47 yuan/kg, down 0.13% week-on-week, while chick prices increased by 19.58% to 2.87 yuan/chick [15][51]. - The report indicates that the price of yellow feather broilers is steadily recovering, reflecting a positive trend in the poultry market [24]. Feed Sector - Prices for corn, soybean meal, and wheat have risen, with corn priced at 2382.16 yuan/ton (up 0.42%), wheat at 2534.78 yuan/ton (up 0.16%), and soybean meal at 3177.14 yuan/ton (up 0.30%) as of February 27 [26][51]. - The report attributes the rise in corn prices to recovering sales in Northeast China and strong demand for replenishment [26]. Bulk Agricultural Products - Natural rubber prices have increased to 17155 yuan/ton, up 4.29% week-on-week, driven by supply shortages and geopolitical tensions [36][51]. - The report notes that the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased to 663,200 tons, indicating a high current inventory level but limited future increases due to low upstream inventory [36]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several stocks across different sectors, including pig farming (e.g., Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff), post-cycle sectors (e.g., Haida Group), planting chains (e.g., Suqian Agricultural Development), and the pet food sector (e.g., Guibao Pet) [3][42].