国泰君安期货研究周报-20260301

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel and Stainless Steel: For nickel, in March, it is advisable to go long on dips with a light position in the short - term, and be cautious about changes in the ore - end logic in the medium - to - long - term. For stainless steel, the main contradiction lies in the raw material end, and it is advisable to go long on dips with a light position within the range in March [4][5]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon should focus on the upstream resumption of production rhythm, and it is recommended to find buying points at low valuations. Polysilicon should focus on the spot price changes, and the disk is expected to be in the range of 45,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton next week [34][35]. - Lithium Carbonate: The supply - demand situation is strong, and the bottom is clearly supported. The futures main contract price is expected to operate in the range of 150,000 - 180,000 yuan/ton [64][65]. - Palm Oil and Soybean Oil: The resonance of macro, energy, and demand - side rush to export has come to an end. Short - term price increases need the realization of production - end drivers. Palm oil and soybean oil should be traded within the range for the time being [91][95]. - Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1: The prices of soybean meal and soybean No.1 are expected to be stable with a slight upward trend. Soybean meal is supported by the cost side, and soybean No.1 is affected by policy sentiment and other factors [106][112]. - Sugar: Internationally, it is in a low - level consolidation and may be driven by rising crude oil. Domestically, it is mainly in a range - bound arrangement [128][151]. - Cotton: ICE cotton is in a low - level shock, and Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain a strong trend. Attention should be paid to the spot demand and new crop planting in March - April [152][168]. - Hogs: The spot price of hogs is in a weak operation and is in the process of finding the bottom. For the futures market, pay attention to the short - selling opportunities after the macro - sentiment rebounds [171][173]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - Market Situation: The speculative attribute of nickel ore end dominates the nickel market, and the cost support center of stainless steel has shifted upward [4][5]. - Inventory: On February 27, the social inventory of refined nickel in China increased by 3,616 tons to 76,619 tons, and the LME nickel inventory increased by 888 tons to 287,976 tons. The total inventory of the nickel - iron stainless - steel industry chain increased by 9% month - on - month to 131,000 metal tons [6][7]. - Market News: Indonesia plans to revise the benchmark price formula of nickel ore, and some nickel mines in other regions plan to resume operations [8][9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Price Trend: Industrial silicon's disk first fell and then rose, and the spot price decreased. Polysilicon's disk was in a weak shock, and the spot price might loosen [29]. - Supply - Demand Fundamentals: Industrial silicon's supply may increase in mid - March, and the demand is weak. Polysilicon's supply decreased, and the demand is expected to decline [30][31][33]. - Future Outlook: Industrial silicon should focus on the upstream resumption of production, and polysilicon should focus on the spot price [34][35]. Lithium Carbonate - Price Trend: The futures price of lithium carbonate increased, and the basis strengthened [61]. - Supply - Demand Fundamentals: The supply is affected by factory maintenance and export restrictions, and the demand is relatively strong in the short - term. The inventory continued to decline [62][63]. - Future Outlook: The supply - demand situation is strong, but the potential negative feedback risk of demand needs to be tracked. The futures main contract price is expected to operate in the range of 150,000 - 180,000 yuan/ton [64][65]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Last Week's Situation: Palm oil fell back from the previous high, and soybean oil rose [90]. - This Week's Outlook: Palm oil's fundamental improvement is slow, and it is advisable to trade within the range. Soybean oil is also traded within the range due to the lack of main contradictions [91][94]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - Last Week's Situation: The prices of US soybeans, domestic soybean meal, and soybean No.1 rose. The net sales of US soybeans decreased, and the Brazilian soybean harvest progress was slow [106][107]. - Next Week's Outlook: The prices of soybean meal and soybean No.1 are expected to be stable with a slight upward trend, affected by cost and policy sentiment [112]. Sugar - This Week's Review: Internationally, the net long positions of funds increased slightly. Domestically, the spot price and futures price of sugar rose, and the basis decreased [126][127]. - Next Week's Outlook: Internationally, it is in a low - level consolidation and may be driven by rising crude oil. Domestically, it is mainly in a range - bound arrangement [128][151]. Cotton - Market Situation: ICE cotton first rose and then fell, and Zhengzhou cotton futures rose after the holiday [152]. - Fundamentals: The export data of US cotton was not good, and the production of Brazilian cotton might be reduced. Domestically, the cotton price rose, and the downstream was in the process of resuming work [156][162][163]. - Future Outlook: ICE cotton is in a low - level shock, and Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain a strong trend [168]. Hogs - This Week's Review: The spot price of hogs was weak, and the futures price was in a weak shock [171]. - Next Week's Outlook: The spot price of hogs is expected to continue to be weak and find the bottom, and the futures market can pay attention to short - selling opportunities [172][173].