国泰君安期货研究周报：农产品-20260301

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: The fundamental improvement is slow, and the previous over - inflated market needs correction. It is recommended to conduct range operations, and consider finding low points to go long in March [5]. - Soybean oil: The upper and lower driving forces are limited. It is recommended to conduct range operations following palm oil and international oil prices [8]. - Soybean meal: Affected by geopolitical events and market sentiment, the price may be stable with a slight upward trend [19]. - Soybean: Pay attention to the policy sentiment of the Two Sessions, and the price may be stable with a slight upward trend [20]. - Sugar: The price will mainly be in range consolidation [39]. - Cotton: The Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain a relatively strong trend. Pay attention to the spot demand for cotton and the new crop planting situation from March to April [66]. - Live pigs: The spot price is in a downward trend and is still in the process of finding the bottom. For the futures market, pay attention to the short - selling opportunities after the macro - sentiment rebound [86]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Palm Oil - Last Week's View and Logic: Before the holiday, palm oil fell back to the 8800 level. After the holiday, the geopolitical risk premium increased international oil prices, and the 05 contract rose 0.34% weekly [4]. - This Week's View and Logic: The Malaysian palm oil rebounded slightly around the crude oil theme, but the POGO spread shrank. The inventory in February may only slightly drop to around 2.7 million tons. It is recommended to conduct range operations and consider going long at low points in March [5]. 3.2 Soybean Oil - Last Week's View and Logic: The U.S. soybean lacked South American weather speculation. The U.S. soybean oil continued its strong logic, rising 7% weekly, and the domestic soybean oil rose 2.03% weekly [4]. - This Week's View and Logic: The U.S. soybean oil's upward factors will switch to policy - sentiment stimulation and crude oil price breakthrough. The domestic soybean oil has no continuous strong driving force for the 05 contract and will conduct range operations following palm oil and international oil prices [8]. 3.3 Soybean Meal and Soybean - Last Week's Market Situation: The U.S. soybean futures prices rose slightly. The domestic soybean meal and soybean futures prices first fell and then rose. The U.S. soybean net sales decreased, the Brazilian soybean import cost increased, and the Brazilian soybean harvest progress was slower than last year [20][21]. - Next Week's Forecast: The prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures may be stable with a slight upward trend. The soybean meal is supported by the U.S. soybean price and Brazilian premium, and the soybean is affected by policy sentiment and rumors of state - reserve sales [26]. 3.4 Sugar - This Week's Market Review: Internationally, the New York raw sugar price rose 0.43%. Domestically, the Guangxi group's spot price rose 20 yuan/ton, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rose 113 yuan/ton [39][40]. - Next Week's Market Outlook: Internationally, the price will be in low - level consolidation and may be driven by the rise in crude oil. Domestically, the price will mainly be in range consolidation, and attention should be paid to import policy changes [41]. 3.5 Cotton - Market Data: The ICE cotton futures rose first and then fell, and the Zhengzhou cotton futures rose 4.44% [66][69]. - Fundamentals: Internationally, the U.S. cotton export data was not good, and the production in other countries had different situations. Domestically, the cotton price rose, but the trading was light, and the downstream was still in the process of resuming work [70][76]. - Operation Suggestion: The ICE cotton is in low - level shock, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain a relatively strong trend. Pay attention to the spot demand and new crop planting from March to April [82]. 3.6 Live Pigs - This Week's Market Review: The spot price of live pigs was weak, and the futures price was in weak shock. The supply side had a backlog of unsold pigs, and the demand side had low slaughter volume after the Spring Festival [84][85]. - Next Week's Market Outlook: The spot price will continue to be weak and is in the process of finding the bottom. For the futures market, pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the macro - sentiment rebound [86][87].