——利率债市场周度复盘：权益走强叠加美伊冲突爆发，债市收益率先上后下-20260301

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - In the first week after the Spring Festival, strong equity performance, tariff progress, and the "Shanghai Seven Measures" boosted equity risk appetite, leading to a callback in the bond market driven by profit - taking of trading desks. On Friday, the central bank lowered the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales, and on Saturday, the Iran - US conflict intensified the risk - aversion sentiment, causing bond yields to decline. Overall for the week, the yield of the 1 - year Treasury active bond rose 1.92BP to 1.30%, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond rose 1.19BP to 1.79%, and the 30 - year Treasury yield rose 1.05BP to 1.235% [4][7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Interest Rate Bond Market Review - Overall Situation: In the first week after the Spring Festival, factors such as good holiday high - frequency data, tariff progress, and the "Shanghai Seven Measures" improved equity risk appetite. Profit - taking by trading desks led to a bond market callback. Policy adjustments and the Iran - US conflict later drove bond yields down. The yields of 1 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds all increased slightly for the week [4][7]. - Daily Analysis: - Tuesday (February 24): The central bank net - withdrew 9264 billion yuan. The capital market was balanced, risk appetite improved, and the equity market was strong. The bond market was lightly traded, with most maturities fluctuating within 0.5BP of the ChinaBond valuation [1][8][13]. - Wednesday (February 25): The central bank net - injected 3095 billion yuan. The capital market changed from tight to loose, and the Shanghai real - estate policy was optimized. The equity market was strong, and due to the stock - bond seesaw effect and institutional profit - taking, bond yields oscillated and adjusted, with the 10 - year Treasury yield rising above 1.8% [1][8][14]. - Thursday (February 26): The central bank net - withdrew 795 billion yuan. The equity market had a high - level correction. Due to the "Shanghai Seven Measures" and pre - Two Sessions policy games, profit - taking sentiment increased, and the bond market sentiment was weak, with the 10 - year Treasury yield rising to a maximum of 1.8140% [1][8][15]. - Friday (February 27): The central bank net - injected 2690 billion yuan and lowered the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales. The Politburo meeting's communiqué had little new content. Bond market sentiment recovered, and the yields of most bonds declined, with the 10 - year Treasury active bond yield returning to around 1.8% [2][8][16]. - Saturday (February 28): The central bank continued net - injection. The capital market was stable and loose. In the afternoon, the Iran - US situation escalated, and risk - aversion sentiment drove bond yields down rapidly, with the 10 - year Treasury active bond yield dropping 1.2bp to 1.79% [2][8][18]. - Next Week's Focus: - Fundamentals: Due to the Spring Festival holiday in February affecting production, the PMI is expected to remain below the boom - bust line. In 2026, local economic targets have been mostly lowered, and it is expected that the policy intensity during the Two Sessions will remain the same, with the GDP target maintained at around 5% [2][9]. - Funds: At the beginning of the month, there are few capital disturbances, and the capital market is likely to remain stable. 1 trillion yuan of 3 - month repurchase agreements are due, and attention should be paid to the central bank's renewal [2][9]. - Overseas: After the breakdown of the Geneva negotiations, the risk of the Iran - US conflict over the weekend continued to rise, the Middle East situation became more tense, and global risk - aversion sentiment increased significantly. Attention should be paid to the volatility risks of global stocks, crude oil, gold and other assets [2][9]. 3.2 Capital Market - The central bank's open - market operations (OMO) had a net withdrawal, and the capital market was balanced and loose. The 1 - year national - share bank certificate of deposit issuance rate dropped to 1.59%, and the capital sentiment index was basically around 50 [1][8][21]. 3.3 Primary Issuance - The net financing of Treasury bonds and local bonds increased, while the net financing of policy - financial bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased [25]. 3.4 Benchmark Changes - The term spread of Treasury bonds narrowed, while the term spread of China Development Bank bonds widened. Specifically, the short - end yields of Treasury bonds rose 0.23BP, and the long - end yields fell 1.46BP. The short - end yields of China Development Bank bonds rose 0.47BP, and the long - end yields rose 1.60BP. The 10Y - 1Y spread of Treasury bonds narrowed 1.69BP to 45.58BP, and the 10Y - 1Y spread of China Development Bank bonds widened 1.13BP to 39.31BP [20][30].