流动性与机构行为周度跟踪260301：2月跨月资金平稳1Y存单续创近一年新低-20260301

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Despite the Spring Festival disturbance, the net payment of government bonds increased in February compared to January, but the volatility of the capital market was significantly lower. The central bank showed an attitude of protecting liquidity. In the future, it is likely to maintain a loose tone and cooperate with the fiscal policy to stabilize government bond issuance. The subsequent tightening of inter - bank deposit self - discipline may reduce non - bank financing costs [5][39] - It is expected that in March 2026, the government bond issuance scale will be 2.68 trillion yuan, with a net financing of 1.18 trillion yuan. The cumulative net financing scale of government bonds in the first quarter is about 3.78 trillion yuan, which may still be lower than the 4.1 trillion yuan in the same period in 2025 [6][55] - Although the pressure of the central bank's policy tool maturity is large next week, the capital demand at the beginning of the month is relatively limited, and the net payment scale of government bonds is relatively low. Coupled with the continuous return of post - festival cash, the capital market is expected to remain stable [9][62] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Money Market 1.1 This Week's Capital Market Review - The central bank's OMO had a net withdrawal of 61.14 billion yuan this week. There was a 15 - billion - yuan treasury cash fixed - deposit maturity on Wednesday, and the central bank carried out a 60 - billion - yuan 1 - year MLF operation, with an excess renewal of 30 billion yuan compared to the maturity. Due to factors such as the large - scale maturity of reverse repurchases after the festival, the delay of the tax payment deadline, and the increase in the net payment scale of government bonds, the capital tightened marginally in the first half of the week and then loosened gradually in the second half [3][15] - Affected by holidays and trading - day adjustments, the trading volume and overall scale of pledged repurchase first increased and then decreased this week. The net lending of large - scale banks first increased and then decreased, while that of small and medium - sized banks decreased slightly after a significant increase on the first trading day after the festival. Non - bank rigid lending decreased significantly after the festival and recovered in the second half of the week. The new - caliber capital gap index first decreased and then increased [4][23] - The inter - bank cross - month progress slowed down after the festival but accelerated on Friday due to non - bank institutions. The exchange market cross - month progress also accelerated during the week. The overall cross - month progress of the whole market in the second half of the week was at a relatively high level compared to previous years, and the capital remained stable under the central bank's protection [4][30] 1.2 Next Week's Capital Outlook - This week, the net payment of government bonds was 19.04 billion yuan. Next week, the issuance scale of 182 - day discounted treasury bonds and 30 - year treasury bonds is 4.5 billion yuan and 3.4 billion yuan respectively. The issuance scale of local bonds in 6 regions is 27.25 billion yuan. Considering the time lag of payment, the net payment scale of government bonds will rise to 28.2 billion yuan [42] - Next week, the maturity scale of 7 - day reverse repurchases is 1.525 trillion yuan, and there is also a 1 - trillion - yuan 3 - month term repurchase agreement maturing. Although the pressure of the central bank's policy tool maturity is large, the capital demand at the beginning of the month is limited, and the capital market is expected to remain stable [9][56] 2. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - This week, the 1 - year Shibor rate decreased by 0.6 BP to 1.604% compared to February 14. The secondary rate of 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased by 0.25 BP to 1.575% [63] - The issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased more than the maturity scale this week, with a net repayment scale of 29.37 billion yuan. The net financing scales of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were - 22.28 billion yuan, 0.84 billion yuan, - 7.09 billion yuan, and - 2.29 billion yuan respectively. The issuance proportion of 1 - year certificates of deposit increased by 23 percentage points to 31% [64] - Next week, the maturity scale of certificates of deposit is about 58.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.5 billion yuan compared to this week. The issuance success rates of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, and city commercial banks decreased, while that of rural commercial banks increased. The interest rate spread between city commercial banks and joint - stock banks for 1 - year certificates of deposit widened [65][68] - The willingness of money market funds and fund companies to increase their holdings of certificates of deposit in the primary and secondary markets decreased this week, while that of wealth management products and other products increased. The supply - demand relative strength index of certificates of deposit decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 16.2% [82] 3. Bill Market - This week, bill interest rates generally increased. As of February 28, the 3 - month and 6 - month bill interest rates of state - owned and joint - stock banks increased by 33 BP and 15 BP respectively compared to February 14, reaching 1.53% and 1.30% [86] 4. Bond Trading Sentiment Tracking - Affected by profit - taking sentiment, the bond market adjusted this week. Credit spreads remained stable, and the spreads of Tier 2 capital bonds and perpetual bonds widened [91] - Large - scale banks' willingness to reduce their bond holdings increased overall. Trading - type institutions tended to reduce their bond holdings, while allocation - type institutions tended to increase their bond holdings [91]