瑞幸咖啡2025Q4业绩点评：Q4同店环比降速，持续推进规模增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1]. Core Insights - The company focuses on growth and market share, with short-term fluctuations in profit margins not affecting its long-term value [2]. - The company is experiencing a slowdown in same-store sales while continuing to expand its store count significantly [7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 34,475 million RMB in 2024 to 72,692 million RMB in 2028, with a CAGR of 38.44% in 2024 and 9.01% in 2028 [5]. - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to increase from 3,287 million RMB in 2024 to 6,557 million RMB in 2028, with growth rates of 3.55% in 2024 and 9.67% in 2028 [5]. - The company’s PE ratio is forecasted to decrease from 22.23 in 2024 to 22.23 in 2028, indicating a potential valuation adjustment [5]. Operational Performance - In Q4 2025, the company reported a revenue of 12.8 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 32.9%, with a GAAP operating profit of 820 million RMB, down 18.5% year-on-year [7]. - The number of stores reached 31,048 by Q4 2025, representing a 39% year-on-year increase, with a net addition of 1,834 stores in Q4 alone [7]. - The average monthly active users reached 98.35 million, a 26.5% increase year-on-year [7]. Market Position - The company has seen a continuous increase in market share, with over 110 million new transaction customers added in 2025, bringing the total to over 450 million by year-end [7]. - The sales volume of freshly made beverages grew by 39% year-on-year, reaching 4.1 billion cups [7]. Cost Structure - The operating profit margin for self-operated stores was 15.0% in Q4 2025, down 4.8 percentage points year-on-year, with raw material costs at 40.0% [7]. - The delivery cost ratio increased to 12.8%, up 4.0 percentage points year-on-year, indicating rising operational costs [7].