国泰君安期货黑色金属周报合集-20260301

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel: The real estate expectation has improved, leading to a slight increase in steel prices. The "Shanghai Seven Measures" policy has stimulated the real - estate expectation, but the black industry chain currently has un - recovered demand and high inventory levels, with a downward - driving force [8][9]. - Iron ore: With low valuation and strong expectation, the iron ore price has a slight rebound. The supply is increasing, the demand is mediocre, and the port inventory is at a high level and continues to accumulate [77]. - Coking coal and coke: Affected by warehouse receipt disturbances and the fermentation of energy attributes, the prices show a wide - range oscillation. The supply is expected to recover quickly, the demand is mainly for rigid - demand replenishment, and the overall inventory is decreasing [126][127][128]. - Ferroalloys: There is a game between "weak reality" and "strong cost", and the futures market shows a strong - side oscillation. The cost center of ferroalloys has significantly increased, but the fundamental supply - demand contradiction has intensified [216]. - Thermal coal: The import coal price shows an obvious inversion, and the short - term port price increase trend may continue. Supply is recovering, demand is entering the off - season, and port inventory is at a low level [284]. Summary by Directory Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Supply, Demand, and Inventory: The supply and demand of steel are both weak, and the inventory is at a relatively healthy level. For example, the rebar supply is 165.1 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 5.3 tons), the demand is 80.5 tons (a week - on - week increase of 39.4 tons), and the inventory is 800.6 tons (a week - on - week increase of 84.6 tons) [7]. - Price and Basis Spread: The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have increased slightly, and the basis spreads and price differences of the 05 - 10 contracts have changed. For instance, the Shanghai rebar spot price is 3210 yuan/ton, the 05 - contract price is 3057 yuan/ton, the 05 - contract basis is 143 yuan/ton, and the 05 - 10 spread is - 33 yuan/ton [22]. - Demand Situation: The new - house sales are at a low level, the second - hand house sales are at a high level, and the land transaction area is also at a low level, indicating weak market confidence [27]. Iron Ore - Supply: The supply of mainstream and non - mainstream mines is increasing, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased slightly week - on - week but increased year - on - year. For example, the global iron ore shipment is 3320.90 tons (a week - on - week increase of 31.0%), and the 45 - port arrival volume is 2152.40 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 8.8%) [76]. - Demand: The steel mill profit is at a low level, the iron - water production increase is limited, and the demand expectation is mediocre. The procurement is mainly for rigid demand [109]. - Inventory: The port inventory is at a high level and continues to accumulate, and it is expected that steel mills will not over - replenish inventory [119]. - Price and Basis Spread: The PB powder spot price is 751 yuan/ton, the 05 - contract price is 750.5 yuan/ton, the 05 - contract basis is 32 yuan/ton, and the 05 - 09 spread is 19.5 yuan/ton [81]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking Coal - Supply: After the Spring Festival, most coal mines resumed production, and the domestic supply is expected to recover quickly. The import volume at the border ports has decreased, and the port price is relatively stable [126]. - Demand: The market transaction activity has increased, but the overall is still mainly for rigid - demand replenishment, and the market sentiment is generally wait - and - see [127]. - Inventory: The total inventory of coking coal at all levels has decreased week - on - week, the coking and steel enterprises are in the process of destocking, and the pit - mouth inventory has increased [128]. - Price and Basis Spread: The futures prices of coking coal 2605 and 2609 have changed, and the basis spreads have also changed accordingly [196]. - Coke - Supply: The production capacity utilization rate and output of independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants have changed. For example, the daily output of 230 independent coking plants is 45 - 75 tons, and the daily output of 247 steel - mill coking plants is 44 - 48 tons [172][175]. - Demand: The iron - water production has increased slightly, and the demand for coke is mainly for rigid demand [190]. - Inventory: The inventory of coking plants and steel - mill coking plants has changed, and the total inventory has also changed [177][178]. - Profit: The profit of coking enterprises has increased, and the disk profit has also changed [193]. Ferroalloys (Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon) - Silicon Iron - Supply: The output has increased slightly week - on - week, and the production capacity utilization rate has decreased slightly. The output this week is 9.86 tons (a week - on - week increase of 0.06 tons), and the production capacity utilization rate is 28.32% (a week - on - week decrease of 0.03 percentage points) [262]. - Demand: The steel - making demand and non - steel demand are both weak, and the raw - material replenishment is over [269]. - Inventory: The inventory of sample enterprises has increased compared with before the festival, and the steel - mill inventory has also increased [276]. - Price and Profit: The futures price has increased, the spot price has increased slightly, and the profit has also increased [221][281]. - Manganese Silicon - Supply: The output has increased week - on - week, and the production capacity utilization rate has decreased slightly. The output this week is 19.74 tons (a week - on - week increase of 0.36 tons), and the production capacity utilization rate is 35.62% (a week - on - week decrease of 0.22 percentage points) [225]. - Demand: The steel - making demand is weakly supported, and the manganese - silicon demand is in a state of relative surplus [232]. - Inventory: The inventory of sample enterprises has increased, the warehouse - receipt inventory has decreased, and the steel - mill inventory has increased [239]. - Cost and Profit: The cost center has increased, the supply - demand pattern suppresses the disk, and the profit has expanded with the disk [258]. Thermal Coal - Supply: After the Spring Festival, coal mines have gradually resumed production, and the supply in the main production areas has recovered. The price increase has stimulated the enthusiasm of traders and platforms for procurement [284]. - Demand: The daily consumption of downstream power plants has increased, but the inventory of coastal power plants is high, and the market is entering the off - season, so the terminal procurement demand is weak [284]. - Inventory: The port inventory has not significantly accumulated during the Spring Festival, and the inventory in the northern ports is running at a low level. The port inflow has increased [284]. - Price: The prices of domestic production areas, ports, and imports have all increased. For example, the price of Yulin 5800 - calorie coal is 601.0 yuan/ton (a week - on - week increase of 3.0 yuan/ton), and the price of Qinhuangdao Port 5500 - calorie coal is 744.0 yuan/ton (a week - on - week increase of 27.0 yuan/ton) [291].