2026年3月宏观及大类资产月报：聚焦全国两会，美伊冲突爆发-20260301

Group 1: Macro Overview and Asset Performance - In February, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.1%, while the CSI 300 increased by 0.1%. The ChiNext Index and the STAR 50 fell by 1.1% and 1.4%, respectively. The bond market saw a slight increase of 0.1%, with the 1-year government bond yield rising by 1.7 basis points, while the 5-year and 10-year yields fell by 3.4 and 3.6 basis points, respectively [1][20][11] - The Hang Seng Index dropped by 2.8%, and the three major US stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up by 0.2%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 fell by 3.4% and 0.9%, respectively [1][20][11] Group 2: A-Share Market Analysis - The re-ignition of conflict in Iran, trade uncertainties, and rising inflation in the US are creating short-term upward pressure on the market. Attention should be focused on the upcoming Two Sessions and the mid-March release of the 14th Five-Year Plan outline, which may provide upward momentum for the market [2][21] - Current market expectations for China's GDP growth in Q1 are at 4.70%, with a slight decline to 4.63% in Q2. As the annual report disclosure period approaches in March, market risk appetite may face further adjustments [2][21] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy emphasizes focusing on performance certainty and price-increasing varieties. During the annual report disclosure phase, attention should be paid to sectors with strong performance certainty such as CPO, PCB, and liquid cooling, as well as upstream price-increasing products like indium phosphate and copper foil [3][24] - In the technology sector, advancements in AI hardware are expected to open growth opportunities in the computing power supply chain. Continued focus on AI-related hardware and price-increasing products in the power sector is recommended [3][25] Group 4: Bond Market Strategy - With the upcoming Two Sessions in early March, which will clarify the new year's work objectives, the bond market is expected to enter a new pricing cycle. The 10-year government bond yield has shown a rebound demand, and if policy and economic data meet expectations, yields are likely to continue rising [4][27][28] - The performance of China's port container throughput in February remains strong, indicating resilient exports, which may support bond yields [4][28] Group 5: Economic Fundamentals - The RMB has appreciated against the USD, rising from 7.35 on April 9, 2025, to 6.84 on February 26, 2026, marking a 7% increase. This appreciation is attributed to both market forces and policy guidance [35][38] - The broad social financing (社融) remains stable, with significant government financing contributing to the economic support. However, the growth rate of social financing is expected to decline, which may weaken macro liquidity and its support for the economy and market [35][41][47]