——2026年3月1日可转债观察：中东局势紧张，转债如何应对？

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market is expected to maintain a stable and positive trend in the medium to long term, with controllable short-term risks. There is no need for excessive concern [2]. - The recent tense situation in the Middle East has different impacts on different industries and sectors in the A-share market, creating investment opportunities in some sectors such as military, shipping, oil and gas, coal chemical, gold, and strategic minor metals [3]. - Given the partial pricing of the Middle East situation by the underlying stocks, the relatively high valuation of convertible bonds, and the unpredictability of the situation, investors are advised to adopt a strategy of buying on dips [3][4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Middle East Tension and Market Situation - On February 28, 2026, Israel launched a "preemptive" strike against Iran, and the US announced large-scale military operations in Iran. On March 1, 2026, Iranian media reported the death of Khamenei. The conflict has spread to the entire Persian Gulf, bringing significant uncertainty to the global financial market [1]. Market Performance and Resilience - In April 2025, the CSI All-Share Index dropped by 9.24% due to US tariff hikes but rebounded the next day and exceeded the pre - decline level on May 12, demonstrating the government's effective support. The CSI Convertible Bond Index showed a similar trend, and the recent negative impact on the convertible bond market from external pressures is weaker than last year [2]. Investment Opportunities and Strategies - The tense Middle East situation may increase the volatility of certain sectors, creating investment opportunities in military, shipping, oil and gas, coal chemical, gold, and strategic minor metals. Some industries may also benefit indirectly, such as copper and aluminum. However, the number of convertible bonds in these industries is limited, and the valuation of convertible bonds relative to the underlying stocks is significantly high. Therefore, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [3]. Investment Risks and Suggestions - Currently, the valuation of convertible bonds relative to the underlying stocks is significantly high, so investors are advised to maintain a medium - sized position and adjust the portfolio structure for more returns. In the long term, the valuation of convertible bonds is likely to return to the historical neutral level, and investors should be more flexible in their investment decisions for over - valued convertible bonds [4].